Voters Registration

Once again the debate is on for who should win each baseball award. So here are the hypothetical votes that I would submit and which awards I would vote for.

Best Pitcher - Cy Young Award
This is the award for who had the best stuff during the entire year.

Rank	AL	NL
1	CC Sabathia	Roy Halladay
2	Justin Verlander	Clayton Kershaw
3	Dan Haren	Cliff Lee
4	Jered Weaver	Madison Bumgarner
5	C.J. Wilson	Matt Cain
6	Doug Fister	Matt Garza
7	Felix Hernandez	Cole Hamels
8	David Price	Ian Kennedy
9	James Shields	Daniel Hudson
10	Justin Masterson	Tim Lincecum

Best Non-Pitcher - The Babe Ruth Award
This is the award for the best position player. Both hitting and fielding are considered

Rank	AL	NL
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	Matt Kemp
2	Jose Bautista	Ryan Braun
3	Ian Kinsler	Joey Votto
4	Dustin Pedroia	Justin Upton
5	Miguel Cabrera	Troy Tulowitzki
6	Curtis Granderson	Jose Reyes
7	Alex Gordon	Brandon Phillips
8	Adrian Gonzalez	Shane Victorino
9	Ben Zobrist	Andrew McCutchen
10	Adrian Beltre	Prince Fielder

Most Valuable Player - Lou Gehrig Award
This is the award for the person who added the most during games to get their team a win.

Rank	AL	NL
1	Jose Bautista	Prince Fielder
2	Miguel Cabrera	Joey Votto
3	Jacoby Ellsbury	Matt Kemp
4	Josh Hamilton	Ryan Braun
5	Justin Verlander	Lance Berkman
6	Jered Weaver	Ian Kennedy
7	James Shields	Roy Halladay
8	Dan Haren	Cliff Lee
9	Ricky Romero	Cole Hamels
10	Josh Beckett	Albert Pujols

Gold Glove Award
This award is for the best fielder at each position per league.

Position	AL	NL
Catcher	Matt Wieters	Jonathan Lucroy
First Base	Adrian Gonzalez	Joey Votto
Second Base	Dustin Pedroia	Brandon Phillips
Short Stop	Alexei Ramirez	Clint Barmes
Third Base	Adrian Beltre	Placido Polanco
Left Field	Brett Gardner	Gerardo Parra
Center Field	Jacoby Ellsbury	Chris Young
Right Field	David DeJesus	Jason Heyward
Pitcher	Felix Hernandez	Jake Westbrook

Deathly Hallows

Spoiler Alert

The last movie and final movie is over and it was thoroughly satisfying. The movie enhanced the books. Once again a great story and good acting rise above cinematic gimmicks (I saw the 2D version, more on that later). The child actors have certainly grown, but the surrounding giants allow the film and series to excel.

In the final film, several performances stood out. They were helped by their excellent situations, but they took it to the next level. Ralph Fiennes as Tom Riddle was great. The steady deterioration due to parts of his soul being obliterated was done quite well. The quick transitions from pompous triumph to shocked vulnerability were excellent. Matthew Lewis played Neville Longbottom to a T. Limping to his defiant speech and then ignorantly and boldly challenging Voldemort was a highlight of the film. Helena Bonham Carter playing Hermione Granger using a polyjuice potion to play Bellatrix Lestrange was very convincing. Just like part 1, I enjoy watching actors play characters pretending to be other characters. Those 3 exceeded expectations. The others certainly did well and my high standards were met.

3D Rant
I realize that 3D allows you to charge extra to attend a movie, but it typically adds very little to the actual movie (unless it is a low budget 80s monster flick). There were several spots that I am sure would look fun in 3D (e.g. the Gringott's Mine Train). The real travesty to me was that the 2D experience was affected by this. Several times I could tell that rather than the background being out of focus, it was actually doubled up like a 3D film would look without glasses. Unacceptable.

Intermission
Grand films might just need a break. This is not a new idea at all. Movies such as Ben Hur and Lawrence of Arabia had intermissions. Why? Because they were really long. But also because they were a single idea and could not be split up. The Deathly Hallows was split in two at its most logical point, but the story really works as a whole. The drama and setup in part one is entirely unfulfilling. The action of part two really makes little sense without part one. The other epic conclusion this century was 3.5 hours in theaters and 5 hours on extended DVD, yet The Return of the King only makes sense in that context. It could have been split after the battle of Minas Tirith. It makes logical sense but not emotional sense. The ups and downs of a movie need to be there. Separate them by 8 months and you lose all of the buildup that works in the ending of the film. I suggest that the best way to watch both films is to watch part one, take an hour break for food, and then watch part two. As soon as the DVD comes out, I think it will make both parts of this film that much better. The Deathly Hallows as a whole might just be the best movie in the series.

Saber Answer to 300 Wins

Yesterday I took on the 3000 hits plateau. Today, 300 wins. Trying to smooth out longevity and performance is difficult with pitchers. There are so many eras out there. This list because of its components is skewed towards the former days. I considered all outings since 1890 so that Cy Young would be involved. In the 1880s some pitchers threw up to 650 innings in a year and really skewed things. But for simplicity sake, I chose Innings Pitched divided by WHIP minus 1 times 2. Boy that seems complicated doesn't it. Basically it measures longevity in innings pitched. Performance is measured by (WHIP - 1) * 2. This takes CY Young's WHIP of 1.13, turns it into .13, and then finally into .26. The times 2 part keeps some rarely used pitchers with good stats from sneaking too far up the ladder. I also limited this to pitcher with > 1500 innings pitched. Without that restriction, Mariano Rivera is the greatest pitcher ever (which you could argue for I guess). So without further ado, here is the list:

Rank	Name	Wins	W Rank	IP	WHIP	New Stat
1	Walter Johnson	417	2	5914.2	1.06	48338
2	Christy Mathewson	373	3	4780.2	1.05	40543
3	Cy Young	511	1	7354.2	1.12	28322
4	Pedro Martinez	219	63	2827.1	1.05	25966
5	Mordecai Brown	239	46	3172.1	1.06	24083
6	Pete Alexander	373	3	5190	1.12	21411
7	Tom Seaver	311	15	4782.2	1.12	19755
8	Eddie Plank	326	10	4495.2	1.11	18891
9	Don Sutton	324	11	5282	1.14	18525
10	Greg Maddux	355	7	5008.1	1.14	17492
11	Juan Marichal	243	42	3507.1	1.10	17328
12	Babe Adams	194	107	2995.1	1.09	16257
13	Fergie Jenkins	284	23	4500.2	1.14	15851
14	Gaylord Perry	314	14	5350.1	1.18	14801
15	Rube Waddell	193	115	2961.1	1.10	14521
16	Roger Clemens	354	8	4916.2	1.17	14237
17	Robin Roberts	286	22	4688.2	1.16	13809
18	Warren Spahn	363	5	5243.2	1.19	13465
19	Chief Bender	212	75	3017	1.11	13385
20	Catfish Hunter	224	55	3449.1	1.13	12849
21	Bert Blyleven	287	21	4970	1.19	12551
22	Doc White	189	121	3041	1.12	12429
23	Deacon Phillippe	189	121	2607	1.10	12402
24	Randy Johnson	303	17	4135.1	1.17	12077
25	Curt Schilling	216	68	3261	1.13	11868
26	Don Drysdale	209	81	3432	1.14	11616
27	Kid Nichols	361	6	5056.1	1.22	11372
28	Jim Palmer	268	28	3948	1.18	10945
29	Sandy Koufax	165	177	2324.1	1.10	10938
30	Nolan Ryan	324	11	5386	1.24	10889
31	Carl Hubbell	253	35	3590.1	1.16	10814
32	Steve Carlton	329	9	5217.1	1.24	10566
33	Jim Bunning	224	55	3760.1	1.17	10505
34	Eddie Cicotte	208	84	3223.1	1.15	10369
35	Bob Gibson	251	36	3884.1	1.18	10320
36	Dennis Eckersley	197	98	3285.2	1.16	10204
37	Jack Powell	245	40	4389	1.21	10127
38	Phil Niekro	318	13	5404.1	1.26	10078
39	John Smoltz	213	74	3473	1.17	9870
40	Jack Chesbro	198	95	2896.2	1.15	9623
41	Vic Willis	249	37	3996	1.20	9538
42	Sam Leever	194	107	2660.2	1.14	9415
43	Mike Mussina	270	26	3562.2	1.19	9292
44	Ed Reulbach	182	136	2632.1	1.14	9190
45	Joe McGinnity	246	39	3441.1	1.18	9152
46	Bret Saberhagen	167	167	2562.2	1.14	9097
47	Hoyt Wilhelm	143	240	2254.1	1.12	9044
48	Luis Tiant	229	52	3486.1	1.19	8769
49	Jim Kaat	283	24	4530.1	1.25	8748
50	Tommy John	288	20	4710.1	1.28	8328

The winners? Pedro Martinez and his 219 wins. Lots of people from the early days... Sandy Koufax and his short lived career.

The losers? Lefty Grove and his 1.28 WHIP. Tom Glavine and his 1.31 WHIP.

Saber Answer to 3000 Hits

3000 hits is always a fun topic. Does it mean anything or is it arbitrary? I decided to come up with a new stat to judge hitters by: Plate Appearances times On Base Percentage. This combines longevity with performance. How does this redefine our top hitters? Currently 27 players have 3000 or more hits. If we sort by PA * OBP, we have to show 76 players to see those 27.

Rank	Name	H	Hit Rank	OBP	PA * OBP
1	Pete Rose	4256	1	0.373	5929
2	Barry Bonds	2935	32	0.444	5599
3	Ty Cobb	4189	2	0.423	5532
4	Rickey Henderson	3055	21	0.400	5343
5	Carl Yastrzemski	3419	6	0.379	5304
6	Stan Musial	3630	4	0.415	5282
7	Hank Aaron	3771	3	0.373	5205
8	Tris Speaker	3514	5	0.416	4998
9	Babe Ruth	2873	40	0.468	4978
10	Eddie Collins	3315	10	0.406	4891
11	Willie Mays	3283	11	0.383	4791
12	Ted Williams	2654	71	0.481	4714
13	Mel Ott	2876	39	0.409	4648
14	Eddie Murray	3255	12	0.359	4606
15	Frank Robinson	2943	31	0.388	4561
16	Craig Biggio	3060	20	0.360	4505
17	Honus Wagner	3415	8	0.383	4503
18	Rafael Palmeiro	3020	24	0.370	4460
19	Paul Molitor	3319	9	0.366	4460
20	Wade Boggs	3010	25	0.413	4445
21	Cap Anson	3418	7	0.391	4433
22	Joe Morgan	2517	91	0.390	4422
23	Cal Ripken	3184	14	0.339	4379
24	Dave Winfield	3110	19	0.352	4351
25	Al Kaline	3007	26	0.374	4339
26	Gary Sheffield	2689	63	0.392	4299
27	George Brett	3154	15	0.368	4283
28	Paul Waner	3152	16	0.397	4281
29	Lou Gehrig	2721	57	0.442	4274
30	Frank Thomas	2468	99	0.419	4222
31	Ken Griffey Jr.	2781	48	0.369	4174
32	Mickey Mantle	2415	112	0.419	4161
33	Robin Yount	3142	17	0.339	4156
34	Derek Jeter	2997	28	0.380	4125
35	Jimmie Foxx	2646	72	0.425	4111
36	Rod Carew	3053	22	0.388	4096
37	Charlie Gehringer	2839	45	0.398	4075
38	Alex Rodriguez	2762	50	0.385	4069
39	Luke Appling	2749	52	0.396	4062
40	Reggie Jackson	2584	81	0.355	4055
41	Rusty Staub	2716	58	0.360	4050
42	Chipper Jones	2562	85	0.403	4020
43	Rogers Hornsby	2930	34	0.423	4016
44	Manny Ramirez	2574	83	0.410	4012
45	Jim Thome	2239	160	0.403	4007
46	Tim Raines	2605	75	0.383	3977
47	Tony Gwynn	3141	18	0.386	3955
48	Jesse Burkett	2850	42	0.411	3954
49	Harold Baines	2866	41	0.355	3942
50	Omar Vizquel	2831	46	0.330	3898
51	Nap Lajoie	3242	13	0.372	3892
52	Dwight Evans	2446	108	0.368	3890
53	Darrell Evans	2223	167	0.359	3863
54	Luis Gonzalez	2591	79	0.366	3857
55	Jeff Bagwell	2314	138	0.407	3843
56	Fred McGriff	2490	96	0.376	3834
57	Lou Brock	3023	23	0.341	3833
58	Mike Schmidt	2234	162	0.379	3820
59	Richie Ashburn	2574	83	0.391	3815
60	Roberto Alomar	2724	56	0.365	3806
61	Billy Williams	2711	61	0.361	3799
62	Eddie Mathews	2315	137	0.374	3785
63	Max Carey	2665	66	0.351	3782
64	Bobby Abreu	2342	127	0.399	3771
65	Brooks Robinson	2848	43	0.319	3761
66	Sam Rice	2987	29	0.366	3751
67	Sam Crawford	2961	30	0.353	3744
68	Goose Goslin	2735	54	0.380	3739
69	Jake Beckley	2930	34	0.356	3729
70	Tony Perez	2732	55	0.340	3700
71	Fred Clarke	2672	65	0.376	3699
72	Harmon Killebrew	2086	222	0.375	3693
73	Harry Hooper	2466	101	0.359	3678
74	Johnny Damon	2662	68	0.352	3663
75	Bill Dahlen	2457	105	0.352	3661
76	Roberto Clemente	3000	27	0.358	3656
77	Frankie Frisch	2880	38	0.360	3639
78	Willie McCovey	2211	171	0.374	3625
79	Edgar Martinez	2247	159	0.417	3619
80	Zack Wheat	2884	37	0.361	3611
81	Todd Helton	2318	136	0.422	3605
82	George Davis	2660	69	0.355	3605
83	John Olerud	2239	160	0.397	3602
84	Chili Davis	2380	117	0.359	3589
85	Lou Whitaker	2369	120	0.359	3586
86	Willie Keeler	2932	33	0.373	3585
87	Eddie Yost	1863	332	0.389	3576
88	Al Simmons	2927	36	0.375	3572
89	Ozzie Smith	2460	103	0.330	3565
90	Harry Heilmann	2660	69	0.396	3556
91	Mark Grace	2445	109	0.382	3554
92	Brett Butler	2375	119	0.371	3542
93	Julio Franco	2586	80	0.363	3541
94	Nellie Fox	2663	67	0.340	3524
95	Roger Connor	2467	100	0.396	3507
96	Mickey Vernon	2495	95	0.355	3499
97	Willie Randolph	2210	172	0.368	3491
98	Rabbit Maranville	2605	75	0.309	3483
99	Andre Dawson	2774	49	0.322	3474
100	Dave Parker	2712	60	0.338	3451

So who wins using this system? Well, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams all move up. Not bad at all.

Who loses? Roberto Clemente (twice as many strikeouts as walks), Lou Brock (over 1700 strikeouts)

So using that stat... hitters with a PA*OBP > 4500 would be:

1. Pete Rose
2. Barry Bonds
3. Ty Cobb
4. Rickey Henderson
5. Carl Yastrzemski
6. Stan Musial
7. Hank Aaron
8. Tris Speaker
9. Babe Ruth
10. Eddie Collins
11. Willie Mays
12. Ted Williams
13. Mel Ott
14. Eddie Murray
15. Frank Robinson
16. Craig Biggio
17. Honus Wagner

Not a bad group to be in.

2011 Baseball Predictions

In the past (2009, 2008, and 2007) I have made predictions about the outcome of the baseball season. I based these on the previous year's record and then added in my own personal adjustment. It is a fairly simple formula.

Previous Years Wins +/- Off-season Moves.

This years predictions are below:

AL East

1. 97 - 65 Boston Red Sox


2. 88 - 74 New York Yankees


3. 82 - 80 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 74 - 88 Baltimore Orioles


5. 69 - 93 Toronto Blue Jays

The Red Sox are far and away the class of the division with their staff. The Yankees have a lineup but a questionable rotation. The Rays will take a step back with the loss of key players. The Jays should stink it up.

AL Central

1. 91 - 71 Minnesota Twins


2. 87 - 75 Chicago White Sox


3. 81 - 81 Detroit Tigers


4. 77 - 85 Cleveland Indians


5. 71 - 91 Kansas City Royals

The Twins have the tools to win this division. The White Sox will put up quite a fight though. The rest are just also rans.

AL West

1. 87 - 75 Texas Rangers


2. 85 - 77 Oakland Athletics


3. 80 - 82 Los Angeles Angels


4. 65 - 97 Seattle Mariners

The Rangers and As will duke it out for the playoff spot. The lineup of the Rangers should give them the edge.

NL East

1. 98 - 64 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 90 - 72 Atlanta Braves


3. 80 - 82 Florida Marlins


4. 70 - 92 New York Mets


5. 66 - 96 Washington Nationals

What's not to love about arguably the best rotation ever. The Braves however will compete mightily in the NL. The Mets and their putrid rotation will fall back this year.

NL Central

1. 89 - 73 Milwaukee Brewers


2. 86 - 76 St. Louis Cardinals


3. 82 - 80 Chicago Cubs


4. 82 - 80 Cincinnati Reds


5. 70 - 92 Houston Astros


6. 69 - 93 Pittsburgh Pirates

This will be the hardest division to win this year. I can honestly see any of the top 4 teams pulling it out. I like the Greinke addition and the Prince contract year to pull it out.

NL West

1. 91- 71 San Francisco Giants


2. 83 - 79 Los Angeles Dodgers


3. 81 - 81 Colorado Rockies


4. 78 - 84 San Diego Padres


5. 68 - 94 Arizona Diamondbacks

As usual, I am not sold on anything in this division except the Giants rotation.


AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas and Minnesota over New York
Boston over Minnesota

NL Playoffs
Phillies over Brewers and Braves over Giants
Phillies over Braves

World Series
Phillies over Boston

January Lessons

So how is this for a New Year's resolution? Invest better. Better yet, look at your investments rather than just open a statement once a quarter. This is a time consuming pursuit, but one that could be very worthwhile. My portfolio has beat the S&P 2 years in a row now. Pretty impressive until I mention that I made 0 moves during that time frame. Perhaps that works out best... we shall see.

What is the easiest way for me to become interested in something? Why join a fantasy league of course. Yes they do have those. Unlike sports related leagues this only has one category: Return on Investment. I managed to eek out 6 basis points higher than the S&P during the first month. Impressive I know. One important note here is to say that this is 'fake' investing for the purpose of gaining knowledge. I have not make actual investments in any of the thing I will reference.

Lessons

• Emerging Market Valuations are highly suspect. Everyone for instance wants a piece of the Chinese market right now. Make sure that it is a credible analyst providing information. Several companies were stung by corruption and bad accounting in January. Their touting analysts were somewhat complicit. I am not saying that company is necessarily bad, just that some numbers may be way off. A good example of this would be RINO or CVVT that both got stung.
• Valuations are based on available data. Using old data right before earnings reports come out puts you behind in the game.
• Publicity does not guaranty that a stock will go up. Good news in the press does not always mean good news for your portfolio.
• Ultra ETFs try to double or triple the return of a given index. Inverse ones do the same thing but bet the thing will go down. These can seem too good to be true. They can be useful, but take extreme caution.
• Betting on earnings is a risky game. This goes back to the publicity thing as well. Just because they beat earnings does not mean that their future forecast is favorable.

So at this point you are probably laughing at these realizations, but there they are. Now what DID work for me?

• Choosing companies with High Profit Margins and High Earnings per Share Growth. e.g. ISRG or FSLR or GLW
• Related to that, I also chose items with High Profit Margins and Low PEG Ratios (PE Ratio / EPS Growth) eg. MU
• Last, betting that Silver and Gold was overpriced and would go down. This was pure luck and have decided to stay out of that.

Hopefully February will be even better. Now for those of you wondering. I am not an investment professional. I have no personal stake in the stocks mentioned here in either real money or a fake portfolio at this time.