Wednesday, March 11, 2009

2009 Baseball Predictions Primer

In the past (2008 and 2007) I have made predictions about the outcome of the baseball season. I based these on the previous year's record and then added in my own personal adjustment. It is a fairly simple formula.

Previous Years Wins +/- Off-season Moves.

This year I am taking a different approach. I have run some regression statistics and will be using those. I figured that I would explain the process before I actually posted the predictions. I have run a regression analysis on the premise that Win Total is a function of OPS and WHIP. To make it simpler, Winning is a combination of Hitting and Pitching. I chose OPS and WHIP as indicators of each respectively. Running a regression analysis on the past 5 seasons, I came up with this formula:

Win Total = 55.19 + (192.8 * OPS) - (86.2 * WHIP)

Now, you may ask, "How accurate is that formula?" A good question. According to the regression model, the adjusted R squared is .7835. In other words, The above formula accounts for 78.35% of the reason wins are the total that they are. For baseball, this is a fairly strong relationship. There is obviously no way to account for random occurrences fully, so a good 21.65% is still left to chance and situational factors.

So with that formula in mind. I calculated how many wins each team would have won if that formula were perfect. I then took the difference between reality and prediction and multiplied it by 78.35%. So with that, I have come up with the Adjusted Win Total for each team last year.

I will use this as my base prior to adjustment this year rather than actual results. Why do I want to do this? I want to know how good teams were, not how lucky they were. Therefore my formula this year is:

Previous Years Adjusted Wins +/- Opinion of Off-season Moves.

So what exactly are the adjusted win totals that I will be working with?

AL East
  1. 96 - 66 Boston Red Sox

  2. 92 - 70 Tampa Bay Rays

  3. 89 - 73 Toronto Blue Jays

  4. 87 - 75 New York Yankees

  5. 68 - 94 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central
  1. 91 - 71 Chicago White Sox

  2. 84 - 78 Cleveland Indians

  3. 84 - 78 Minnesota Twins

  4. 76 - 86 Detroit Tigers

  5. 75 - 87 Kansas City Royals

AL West
  1. 88 - 74 Los Angeles Angels

  2. 77 - 85 Texas Rangers

  3. 72 - 88 Oakland Athletics

  4. 61 - 101 Seattle Mariners

NL East
  1. 88 - 74 Philadelphia Phillies

  2. 85 - 77 New York Mets

  3. 82 - 80 Florida Marlins

  4. 77 - 85 Atlanta Braves

  5. 63 - 99 Washington Nationals

NL Central
  1. 98 - 64 Chicago Cubs

  2. 87 - 75 Milwaukee Brewers

  3. 87 - 75 St. Louis Cardinals

  4. 81 - 81 Houston Astros

  5. 71 - 91 Cincinnati Reds

  6. 61 - 101 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West
  1. 86 - 76 Arizona Diamondbacks

  2. 85 - 77 Los Angeles Dodgers

  3. 74 - 88 Colorado Rockies

  4. 70 - 92 San Diego Padres

  5. 68 - 94 San Francisco Giants

Which team was adjusted the most?
Los Angeles Angels (-12 wins)

Feel free to post comments or suggestions. Is there a stat that you think would be better to use than either OPS or WHIP?

Saturday, March 07, 2009

Starved for Attention

I had to get my camera out and capture the fun that our dogs bring to our lives.

This picture is Mollee trying to get my attention while I am studying by chewing on my chair.

Buddy is a fun dog to have. He seems genuinely happy and frankly excited just to be alive. So you can do all sorts of things to him and he is either clueless or too excited to care. Take today, when Kimberlee decided to put some Easter Bunny ears on him, this was his reaction.

Now Mollee being the spoiled little thing that she is deems silly things like this to be both pointless and humiliating. Therefore, she gives us the evil eye whenever we try to make her prissy.

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Outlines and Trenches

If you are like me, this title evokes thoughts of presentation summaries and World War 1 fighting strategies. But, these two words can adequately describe the current state of my house. The builder has put up form boards that will be used later on for the foundation. This is like having a chalk line of your house. It is pretty cool to see where it is going to go, but boy does it look small when you look at it. Kimberlee wanted me to double check that the builder wasn't skimming some of the square footage off. The familiar view across the street is now:

They have dug a bunch of trenches that will be used for pipes of various sorts. They have to get all of that done before the foundation is poured. Because of this pre-design, we should only have 1 hole in the foundation for all of the pipes to enter the house.

Current estimates are that we will have a good amount of the framing done by the end of the month!