2011 Baseball Predictions

In the past (2009, 2008, and 2007) I have made predictions about the outcome of the baseball season. I based these on the previous year's record and then added in my own personal adjustment. It is a fairly simple formula.

Previous Years Wins +/- Off-season Moves.

This years predictions are below:

AL East

1. 97 - 65 Boston Red Sox


2. 88 - 74 New York Yankees


3. 82 - 80 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 74 - 88 Baltimore Orioles


5. 69 - 93 Toronto Blue Jays

The Red Sox are far and away the class of the division with their staff. The Yankees have a lineup but a questionable rotation. The Rays will take a step back with the loss of key players. The Jays should stink it up.

AL Central

1. 91 - 71 Minnesota Twins


2. 87 - 75 Chicago White Sox


3. 81 - 81 Detroit Tigers


4. 77 - 85 Cleveland Indians


5. 71 - 91 Kansas City Royals

The Twins have the tools to win this division. The White Sox will put up quite a fight though. The rest are just also rans.

AL West

1. 87 - 75 Texas Rangers


2. 85 - 77 Oakland Athletics


3. 80 - 82 Los Angeles Angels


4. 65 - 97 Seattle Mariners

The Rangers and As will duke it out for the playoff spot. The lineup of the Rangers should give them the edge.

NL East

1. 98 - 64 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 90 - 72 Atlanta Braves


3. 80 - 82 Florida Marlins


4. 70 - 92 New York Mets


5. 66 - 96 Washington Nationals

What's not to love about arguably the best rotation ever. The Braves however will compete mightily in the NL. The Mets and their putrid rotation will fall back this year.

NL Central

1. 89 - 73 Milwaukee Brewers


2. 86 - 76 St. Louis Cardinals


3. 82 - 80 Chicago Cubs


4. 82 - 80 Cincinnati Reds


5. 70 - 92 Houston Astros


6. 69 - 93 Pittsburgh Pirates

This will be the hardest division to win this year. I can honestly see any of the top 4 teams pulling it out. I like the Greinke addition and the Prince contract year to pull it out.

NL West

1. 91- 71 San Francisco Giants


2. 83 - 79 Los Angeles Dodgers


3. 81 - 81 Colorado Rockies


4. 78 - 84 San Diego Padres


5. 68 - 94 Arizona Diamondbacks

As usual, I am not sold on anything in this division except the Giants rotation.


AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas and Minnesota over New York
Boston over Minnesota

NL Playoffs
Phillies over Brewers and Braves over Giants
Phillies over Braves

World Series
Phillies over Boston

2009 Baseball Predictions

So once again, I offer the greatest compilation of sports prognostication around. I crunched the numbers and added in my own special expertise. Without further adieu, the greatness:

AL East

1. 95 - 67 Boston Red Sox


2. 89 - 73 New York Yankees


3. 88 - 74 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 78 - 84 Toronto Blue Jays


5. 68 - 94 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. 85 - 77 Cleveland Indians


2. 84 - 80 Minnesota Twins


3. 83 - 78 Detroit Tigers


4. 81 - 71 Chicago White Sox


5. 74 - 88 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 88 - 74 Los Angeles Angels


2. 83 - 79 Texas Rangers


3. 80 - 82 Oakland Athletics


4. 69 - 93 Seattle Mariners

NL East

1. 90 - 72 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 87 - 75 New York Mets


3. 82 - 80 Florida Marlins


4. 75 - 87 Atlanta Braves


5. 72 - 90 Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. 91 - 71 Chicago Cubs


2. 89 - 73 St. Louis Cardinals


3. 86 - 76 Milwaukee Brewers


4. 82 - 80 Houston Astros


5. 74 - 88 Cincinnati Reds


6. 70 - 92 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 89 - 73 Los Angeles Dodgers


2. 83 - 79 Arizona Diamondbacks


3. 81 - 81 San Francisco Giants


4. 75 - 87 Colorado Rockies


5. 70 - 92 San Diego Padres

So according to that account the Playoffs look like:

American League: Boston, Cleveland, Los Angeles and New York

National League: Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, and St. Louis

World Series: Boston over Chicago

The Lighter Side

It is time for a post on the lighter side of things. I have noticed that Baseball has slipped to #2 on my topics list, so today I am going to help it and other topics get more recognition.

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It's Hot Stove Season in Baseball Land
Oh boy am I excited. Possible blockbuster deals and team upgrades make this time of year a fun time to keep up with the great game. Being in Texas, I don't see many of the big names coming here. I would love to trade Salty for a pitcher. Greinke appears to be a possibility that I would go for. Any trade must be for a promising pitcher. We don't need anything else right now.

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The Best Stadium?
Today on the lovely Ticket, the broadcasters boldly predicted that the new Dallas Cowboys stadium was so expensive, so luxurious, and so innovating that it would be the best sports stadium for at least 10 years. They justify this position by claiming that Jerry Jones is more ambitious and has more money to spend than anyone else.

I am going to boldly take the opposite side of this argument. I think it will be less than 5 years (probably 3) before some new stadium takes over the title. I can't count how many new stadiums were hailed as the best ever and would never be topped, all have since been dethroned. I guarantee that this one will be topped and saying otherwise is not a wise stance to take.

Now don't get me wrong, I think that it will be a great place for many years to see a game. But the best? I tend to think it will be outdone by someone and in the not-so-distant future.

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How To Cut In Line
Check out this article on the best ways to cut in line. A quick look:

researchers have tried to unpick the psychology of the queue, though most work has focused on reducing consumer frustration. However, one classic study found that New Yorkers were more likely to react to people who cut in front of them in a subway queue than behind.

Yankee fans only care about who is in front of them (Red Sox), they never see it coming from behind (Rays).

A cheap shot and off topic... you bet. Thoroughly satisfying... definitely.

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A Smart Choice
I rented Get Smart the other night and it exceeded my expectations. It had plenty of witty comedy, but kept from being downright silly. I give it a solid 4 out of 5.

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Too Long?
People often complain about the length of the Baseball season. 162 games is a long season. But now that both Hockey and Basketball have started up, I suggest that they feel longer. Baseball goes roughly from March through October, or about 8 months. Basketball and Hockey go from roughly November through June, or about 8 months. The difference to me is that at least in baseball, my team is playing every day or two, not every three to four. All of the down time combined with the length of the playoffs make the 'Winter' sports drag on and on.

I think that we might need to take the schedules down a notch, but let's apply it to several sports.

Chizzeled in Stone

I promised a while back that I would lay out my predictions for the upcoming season, so here they are:

Dallas Cowboys: 12-4

1. @Cleveland - W
2. Philadelphia - W
3. @Green Bay - L
4. Washington - W
5. Cincinnati - W
6. @Arizona - W
7. @St. Louis - W
8. Tampa Bay - W
9. @NY Giants - L
10. @Washington - W
11. San Francisco - W
12. Seattle - W
13. @Pittsburgh - L
14. NY Giants - W
15. Baltimore - W
16. @Philadelphia - L

Standings
AFC
East

1. New England Patriots 14-2
2. Buffalo Bils 8-8
3. New York Jets 8-8
4. Miami Dolphins 3-13

North

1. Cleveland Browns 10-6
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
3. Cincinnati Bengals 8-8
4. Baltimore Ravens 4-12

South

1. Jacksonville Jaguars 13-3
2. Indianapolis Colts 11-5
3. Houston Texans 10-6
4. Tennessee Titans 6-10

West

1. San Diego Chargers 13-3
2. Denver Broncos 9-7
3. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12
4. Oakland Raiders 3-13

NFC
East

1. Dallas Cowboys 12-4
2. NY Giants 11-5
3. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
4. Washington Redskins 7-9

North

1. Green Bay Packers 11-5
2. Minnesota Vikings - 10-6
3. Detroit Lions 8-8
4. Chicago Bears 5-11

South

1. Carolina Panthers 9-7
2. New Orleans Saints 8-8
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
4. Atlanta 2-14

West

1. Arizona Cardinals 9-7
2. Seattle Seahawks 7-9
3. San Francisco 49s - 6-10
4. St. Louis Rams 3-13

Super Bowl - Jacksonville over Dallas

2008 Baseball Predictions

Last year I had the good fortune of putting my oh so prescient baseball predictions down in writing. Therefore this year I must at least do my part in predicting the upcoming season. Playoff teams are in italics. Bold if they make it to the League Championship. In the end I pick the Detroit Tigers over the New York Mets.

AL East

1. 90-72 Boston Red Sox


2. 88-74 New York Yankees


3. 79-83 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 74-88 Toronto Blue Jays


5. 67-95 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. 94-68 Detroit Tigers


2. 91-71 Cleveland Indians


3. 79-83 Chicago White Sox


4. 73-89 Minnesota Twins


5. 70-92 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 92-70 Los Angeles Angels


2. 85-77 Seattle Mariners


3. 79-83 Texas Rangers


4. 72-90 Oakland Athletics

NL East

1. 91-71 New York Mets


2. 89-73 Philadelphia Phillies


3. 85-77 Atlanta Braves


4. 73-89 Washington Nationals


5. 68-94 Florida Marlins

NL Central

1. 88-74 Chicago Cubs


2. 83-79 Milwaukee Brewers


3. 82-80 Cincinnati Reds


4. 78-84 Houston Astros


5. 77-85 St. Louis Cardinals


6. 69-93 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 91-71 Arizona Diamondbacks


2. 86-76 Colorado Rockies


3. 85-77 San Diego Padres


4. 82-80 Los Angeles Dodgers


5. 69-93 San Francisco Giants

They Call Him the Streak

I know that it is a day late for this post, but I thought that I would go ahead and get the info in before the next set of games start. I am torn this week between my favorite sport and the sport that my entire city is talking about. Since it is the playoffs, my favorite sport gets my top nod.

The Major League Baseball playoffs have in recent years become more of a "who is hot right now" contest than a "who is the best team" challenge in my opinion. This year I think that it would be hard to argue that the NL is anywhere near as close to the AL in overall competitiveness. However, just like last year, a hot NL team could run the table.

The Red Sox have been scary all year; their problem has been getting everyone on the same page at the same time. And oh my have they clicked at the right time. Their firepower at the plate seems quite superior to me in the ALCS and that should take them through to the next round. Fausto Carmona is throwing for Cleveland tonight and gives them their best shot to take a game. Sabathia has as good a chance as any player to take the Cy Young award, but his performance last night was not good at all. Pitching, like it does so many years in baseball, made the difference yesterday.
Boston 4 games - Cleveland 2 games

The Colorado Rockies have quite an explosive lineup and their pitching the past month has been good enough, if not excellent. Taking out Brandon Webb in game 1 was the key to this series an basically spoiled the Diamondbacks chances. With their lineup, the Rockies streak is even scarier than a typical hot team. This team has some sustainability. It all rests on their pitchers to see how far they can go.
Colorado 4 games - Arizona 1 game

Now to the granddaddy of them all, the NFL. Nothing has stirred Dallas in quite a while like this Cowboys team. I predicted a good year, but nothing this solid. I am personally pumped that they had their screw-up game last week vs. the Bills. The Patriots however are a different beast. I think we match up quite well against them except for our pass coverage. I think our running game is better, but in the end we will get burned too many times. So I will have to go against my beloved team overall, but I think they will cover the spread.
New England Patriots 31 - Dallas Cowboys 27

Overall record on outright winners, 3-0

The Big Weekend

This is an excellent weekend to be a pro sports fan. The college lineup is a little week, but the MLB and NFL are as exciting as ever. Here once again on record are the things that I know will most likely happen if everything goes my way.

Let's start with baseball and the exciting pennant races that are going on right now. Being an American League fan, I have long since figured that everything was aligned back in August. However the National League is up for grabs. So a couple of notes...

• I predicted the AL standings to a T 6 months ago
• I am always modest
• The Cubs will win at least 1 game and the Brewers will lose at least 1 game, therefore clinching the playoff berth for the Cubs.
• The Padres and Diamondbacks will tie for the top of the NL West and spoil the Rockies feel good story.
• This will cause the following rule to be invoked:
  In the event of a tie in the standings at the close of the regular season, league rules provide for a one-game playoff (with the home field determined by coin flip) to determine which of two teams participate in the Division Series. If three teams are involved in a tie, a two-game playoff may be played. If two teams are tied, but a tiebreaker would result in both participating in the Division Series anyway (due to one being division champion and the other being wild card), then no playoff is played and seedings are determined by head-to-head record.
• I want the Phillies to win the East, but I think the Mets will not choke enough to make it happen. (And yes I know that is not the popular consensus)

Since I am a big Dallas Cowboys fan, I will always make a prediction for their game and at least 2 other games. So for week 4 of the NFL:

• This is an obvious pick for a Cowboys win, which is exactly why many people are scared of this game. I would be too, but I think the lack of Steven Jackson will allow the defense to really attack the quarterback. I expect the secondary to give up a couple of big pass plays, but overall contain the Rams. I see the boys putting up pretty good number on them so this game should go well.
  Dallas Cowboys 34, St. Louis Rams 17
• The big game of the week is the Vikings vs. the Packers. This is definitely a battle of good defenses. This game should come down to who has more sacks, interceptions, and big stops. I would personally rank Minnesota slightly higher than the Packers on the defensive depth chart. However, Green Bay has a definite offensive advantage. If they can contain the Viking running game, as I expect them to do well enough, than they take this game.
  Green Bay Packers 24, Minnesota Vikings 13
• And finally, I have to check out the Colts and Broncos. This has the most intriguing match ups with the wide receivers of Indianapolis going against the defensive backs of Denver. This game should highlight how well Joseph Addai really is. Watch for the Colts starting out with a strong running game and then exploiting holes in the Denver defense when they try to plug up the line of scrimmage. The status of John Lynch will have a huge impact upon the game. The Broncos will have to utilize their potent air attack to best the Colts in this game.
  Indianapolis Colts 23, Denver Broncos 20

2007 Baseball Predictions

I figured that before the season actually starts I had better get my stuff in writing. That way if any of it actually comes true, I can point it out to you way too often. Playoff teams are in italics. Bold if they make it to the League Championship. In the end I pick Boston over St. Louis.

AL East

1. 94-68 Boston Red Sox


2. 92-70 New York Yankees


3. 83-79 Toronto Blue Jays


4. 70-92 Baltimore Orioles


5. 66-96 Tampa Bay Devil Rays

AL Central

1. 91-71 Cleveland Indians


2. 87-75 Detroit Tigers


3. 85-77 Chicago White Sox


4. 81-81 Minnesota Twins


5. 65-97 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 90-72 Los Angeles Angels


2. 86-76 Texas Rangers


3. 83-79 Oakland Athletics


4. 71-91 Seattle Mariners

NL East

1. 94-68 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 91-71 New York Mets


3. 82-80 Atlanta Braves


4. 73-89 Florida Marlins


5. 62-100 Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. 90-72 St. Louis Cardinals


2. 86-76 Chicago Cubs


3. 82-80 Houston Astros


4. 77-85 Cincinnati Reds


5. 73-89 Milwaukee Brewers


6. 68-94 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 89-73 San Diego Padres


2. 86-76 Los Angeles Dodgers


3. 81-81 Colorado Rockies


4. 77-85 San Francisco Giants


5. 75-87 Arizona Diamondbacks