Voters Registration

Once again the debate is on for who should win each baseball award. So here are the hypothetical votes that I would submit and which awards I would vote for.

Best Pitcher - Cy Young Award
This is the award for who had the best stuff during the entire year.

Rank	AL	NL
1	CC Sabathia	Roy Halladay
2	Justin Verlander	Clayton Kershaw
3	Dan Haren	Cliff Lee
4	Jered Weaver	Madison Bumgarner
5	C.J. Wilson	Matt Cain
6	Doug Fister	Matt Garza
7	Felix Hernandez	Cole Hamels
8	David Price	Ian Kennedy
9	James Shields	Daniel Hudson
10	Justin Masterson	Tim Lincecum

Best Non-Pitcher - The Babe Ruth Award
This is the award for the best position player. Both hitting and fielding are considered

Rank	AL	NL
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	Matt Kemp
2	Jose Bautista	Ryan Braun
3	Ian Kinsler	Joey Votto
4	Dustin Pedroia	Justin Upton
5	Miguel Cabrera	Troy Tulowitzki
6	Curtis Granderson	Jose Reyes
7	Alex Gordon	Brandon Phillips
8	Adrian Gonzalez	Shane Victorino
9	Ben Zobrist	Andrew McCutchen
10	Adrian Beltre	Prince Fielder

Most Valuable Player - Lou Gehrig Award
This is the award for the person who added the most during games to get their team a win.

Rank	AL	NL
1	Jose Bautista	Prince Fielder
2	Miguel Cabrera	Joey Votto
3	Jacoby Ellsbury	Matt Kemp
4	Josh Hamilton	Ryan Braun
5	Justin Verlander	Lance Berkman
6	Jered Weaver	Ian Kennedy
7	James Shields	Roy Halladay
8	Dan Haren	Cliff Lee
9	Ricky Romero	Cole Hamels
10	Josh Beckett	Albert Pujols

Gold Glove Award
This award is for the best fielder at each position per league.

Position	AL	NL
Catcher	Matt Wieters	Jonathan Lucroy
First Base	Adrian Gonzalez	Joey Votto
Second Base	Dustin Pedroia	Brandon Phillips
Short Stop	Alexei Ramirez	Clint Barmes
Third Base	Adrian Beltre	Placido Polanco
Left Field	Brett Gardner	Gerardo Parra
Center Field	Jacoby Ellsbury	Chris Young
Right Field	David DeJesus	Jason Heyward
Pitcher	Felix Hernandez	Jake Westbrook

Saber Answer to 300 Wins

Yesterday I took on the 3000 hits plateau. Today, 300 wins. Trying to smooth out longevity and performance is difficult with pitchers. There are so many eras out there. This list because of its components is skewed towards the former days. I considered all outings since 1890 so that Cy Young would be involved. In the 1880s some pitchers threw up to 650 innings in a year and really skewed things. But for simplicity sake, I chose Innings Pitched divided by WHIP minus 1 times 2. Boy that seems complicated doesn't it. Basically it measures longevity in innings pitched. Performance is measured by (WHIP - 1) * 2. This takes CY Young's WHIP of 1.13, turns it into .13, and then finally into .26. The times 2 part keeps some rarely used pitchers with good stats from sneaking too far up the ladder. I also limited this to pitcher with > 1500 innings pitched. Without that restriction, Mariano Rivera is the greatest pitcher ever (which you could argue for I guess). So without further ado, here is the list:

Rank	Name	Wins	W Rank	IP	WHIP	New Stat
1	Walter Johnson	417	2	5914.2	1.06	48338
2	Christy Mathewson	373	3	4780.2	1.05	40543
3	Cy Young	511	1	7354.2	1.12	28322
4	Pedro Martinez	219	63	2827.1	1.05	25966
5	Mordecai Brown	239	46	3172.1	1.06	24083
6	Pete Alexander	373	3	5190	1.12	21411
7	Tom Seaver	311	15	4782.2	1.12	19755
8	Eddie Plank	326	10	4495.2	1.11	18891
9	Don Sutton	324	11	5282	1.14	18525
10	Greg Maddux	355	7	5008.1	1.14	17492
11	Juan Marichal	243	42	3507.1	1.10	17328
12	Babe Adams	194	107	2995.1	1.09	16257
13	Fergie Jenkins	284	23	4500.2	1.14	15851
14	Gaylord Perry	314	14	5350.1	1.18	14801
15	Rube Waddell	193	115	2961.1	1.10	14521
16	Roger Clemens	354	8	4916.2	1.17	14237
17	Robin Roberts	286	22	4688.2	1.16	13809
18	Warren Spahn	363	5	5243.2	1.19	13465
19	Chief Bender	212	75	3017	1.11	13385
20	Catfish Hunter	224	55	3449.1	1.13	12849
21	Bert Blyleven	287	21	4970	1.19	12551
22	Doc White	189	121	3041	1.12	12429
23	Deacon Phillippe	189	121	2607	1.10	12402
24	Randy Johnson	303	17	4135.1	1.17	12077
25	Curt Schilling	216	68	3261	1.13	11868
26	Don Drysdale	209	81	3432	1.14	11616
27	Kid Nichols	361	6	5056.1	1.22	11372
28	Jim Palmer	268	28	3948	1.18	10945
29	Sandy Koufax	165	177	2324.1	1.10	10938
30	Nolan Ryan	324	11	5386	1.24	10889
31	Carl Hubbell	253	35	3590.1	1.16	10814
32	Steve Carlton	329	9	5217.1	1.24	10566
33	Jim Bunning	224	55	3760.1	1.17	10505
34	Eddie Cicotte	208	84	3223.1	1.15	10369
35	Bob Gibson	251	36	3884.1	1.18	10320
36	Dennis Eckersley	197	98	3285.2	1.16	10204
37	Jack Powell	245	40	4389	1.21	10127
38	Phil Niekro	318	13	5404.1	1.26	10078
39	John Smoltz	213	74	3473	1.17	9870
40	Jack Chesbro	198	95	2896.2	1.15	9623
41	Vic Willis	249	37	3996	1.20	9538
42	Sam Leever	194	107	2660.2	1.14	9415
43	Mike Mussina	270	26	3562.2	1.19	9292
44	Ed Reulbach	182	136	2632.1	1.14	9190
45	Joe McGinnity	246	39	3441.1	1.18	9152
46	Bret Saberhagen	167	167	2562.2	1.14	9097
47	Hoyt Wilhelm	143	240	2254.1	1.12	9044
48	Luis Tiant	229	52	3486.1	1.19	8769
49	Jim Kaat	283	24	4530.1	1.25	8748
50	Tommy John	288	20	4710.1	1.28	8328

The winners? Pedro Martinez and his 219 wins. Lots of people from the early days... Sandy Koufax and his short lived career.

The losers? Lefty Grove and his 1.28 WHIP. Tom Glavine and his 1.31 WHIP.

Saber Answer to 3000 Hits

3000 hits is always a fun topic. Does it mean anything or is it arbitrary? I decided to come up with a new stat to judge hitters by: Plate Appearances times On Base Percentage. This combines longevity with performance. How does this redefine our top hitters? Currently 27 players have 3000 or more hits. If we sort by PA * OBP, we have to show 76 players to see those 27.

Rank	Name	H	Hit Rank	OBP	PA * OBP
1	Pete Rose	4256	1	0.373	5929
2	Barry Bonds	2935	32	0.444	5599
3	Ty Cobb	4189	2	0.423	5532
4	Rickey Henderson	3055	21	0.400	5343
5	Carl Yastrzemski	3419	6	0.379	5304
6	Stan Musial	3630	4	0.415	5282
7	Hank Aaron	3771	3	0.373	5205
8	Tris Speaker	3514	5	0.416	4998
9	Babe Ruth	2873	40	0.468	4978
10	Eddie Collins	3315	10	0.406	4891
11	Willie Mays	3283	11	0.383	4791
12	Ted Williams	2654	71	0.481	4714
13	Mel Ott	2876	39	0.409	4648
14	Eddie Murray	3255	12	0.359	4606
15	Frank Robinson	2943	31	0.388	4561
16	Craig Biggio	3060	20	0.360	4505
17	Honus Wagner	3415	8	0.383	4503
18	Rafael Palmeiro	3020	24	0.370	4460
19	Paul Molitor	3319	9	0.366	4460
20	Wade Boggs	3010	25	0.413	4445
21	Cap Anson	3418	7	0.391	4433
22	Joe Morgan	2517	91	0.390	4422
23	Cal Ripken	3184	14	0.339	4379
24	Dave Winfield	3110	19	0.352	4351
25	Al Kaline	3007	26	0.374	4339
26	Gary Sheffield	2689	63	0.392	4299
27	George Brett	3154	15	0.368	4283
28	Paul Waner	3152	16	0.397	4281
29	Lou Gehrig	2721	57	0.442	4274
30	Frank Thomas	2468	99	0.419	4222
31	Ken Griffey Jr.	2781	48	0.369	4174
32	Mickey Mantle	2415	112	0.419	4161
33	Robin Yount	3142	17	0.339	4156
34	Derek Jeter	2997	28	0.380	4125
35	Jimmie Foxx	2646	72	0.425	4111
36	Rod Carew	3053	22	0.388	4096
37	Charlie Gehringer	2839	45	0.398	4075
38	Alex Rodriguez	2762	50	0.385	4069
39	Luke Appling	2749	52	0.396	4062
40	Reggie Jackson	2584	81	0.355	4055
41	Rusty Staub	2716	58	0.360	4050
42	Chipper Jones	2562	85	0.403	4020
43	Rogers Hornsby	2930	34	0.423	4016
44	Manny Ramirez	2574	83	0.410	4012
45	Jim Thome	2239	160	0.403	4007
46	Tim Raines	2605	75	0.383	3977
47	Tony Gwynn	3141	18	0.386	3955
48	Jesse Burkett	2850	42	0.411	3954
49	Harold Baines	2866	41	0.355	3942
50	Omar Vizquel	2831	46	0.330	3898
51	Nap Lajoie	3242	13	0.372	3892
52	Dwight Evans	2446	108	0.368	3890
53	Darrell Evans	2223	167	0.359	3863
54	Luis Gonzalez	2591	79	0.366	3857
55	Jeff Bagwell	2314	138	0.407	3843
56	Fred McGriff	2490	96	0.376	3834
57	Lou Brock	3023	23	0.341	3833
58	Mike Schmidt	2234	162	0.379	3820
59	Richie Ashburn	2574	83	0.391	3815
60	Roberto Alomar	2724	56	0.365	3806
61	Billy Williams	2711	61	0.361	3799
62	Eddie Mathews	2315	137	0.374	3785
63	Max Carey	2665	66	0.351	3782
64	Bobby Abreu	2342	127	0.399	3771
65	Brooks Robinson	2848	43	0.319	3761
66	Sam Rice	2987	29	0.366	3751
67	Sam Crawford	2961	30	0.353	3744
68	Goose Goslin	2735	54	0.380	3739
69	Jake Beckley	2930	34	0.356	3729
70	Tony Perez	2732	55	0.340	3700
71	Fred Clarke	2672	65	0.376	3699
72	Harmon Killebrew	2086	222	0.375	3693
73	Harry Hooper	2466	101	0.359	3678
74	Johnny Damon	2662	68	0.352	3663
75	Bill Dahlen	2457	105	0.352	3661
76	Roberto Clemente	3000	27	0.358	3656
77	Frankie Frisch	2880	38	0.360	3639
78	Willie McCovey	2211	171	0.374	3625
79	Edgar Martinez	2247	159	0.417	3619
80	Zack Wheat	2884	37	0.361	3611
81	Todd Helton	2318	136	0.422	3605
82	George Davis	2660	69	0.355	3605
83	John Olerud	2239	160	0.397	3602
84	Chili Davis	2380	117	0.359	3589
85	Lou Whitaker	2369	120	0.359	3586
86	Willie Keeler	2932	33	0.373	3585
87	Eddie Yost	1863	332	0.389	3576
88	Al Simmons	2927	36	0.375	3572
89	Ozzie Smith	2460	103	0.330	3565
90	Harry Heilmann	2660	69	0.396	3556
91	Mark Grace	2445	109	0.382	3554
92	Brett Butler	2375	119	0.371	3542
93	Julio Franco	2586	80	0.363	3541
94	Nellie Fox	2663	67	0.340	3524
95	Roger Connor	2467	100	0.396	3507
96	Mickey Vernon	2495	95	0.355	3499
97	Willie Randolph	2210	172	0.368	3491
98	Rabbit Maranville	2605	75	0.309	3483
99	Andre Dawson	2774	49	0.322	3474
100	Dave Parker	2712	60	0.338	3451

So who wins using this system? Well, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams all move up. Not bad at all.

Who loses? Roberto Clemente (twice as many strikeouts as walks), Lou Brock (over 1700 strikeouts)

So using that stat... hitters with a PA*OBP > 4500 would be:

1. Pete Rose
2. Barry Bonds
3. Ty Cobb
4. Rickey Henderson
5. Carl Yastrzemski
6. Stan Musial
7. Hank Aaron
8. Tris Speaker
9. Babe Ruth
10. Eddie Collins
11. Willie Mays
12. Ted Williams
13. Mel Ott
14. Eddie Murray
15. Frank Robinson
16. Craig Biggio
17. Honus Wagner

Not a bad group to be in.

2011 Baseball Predictions

In the past (2009, 2008, and 2007) I have made predictions about the outcome of the baseball season. I based these on the previous year's record and then added in my own personal adjustment. It is a fairly simple formula.

Previous Years Wins +/- Off-season Moves.

This years predictions are below:

AL East

1. 97 - 65 Boston Red Sox


2. 88 - 74 New York Yankees


3. 82 - 80 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 74 - 88 Baltimore Orioles


5. 69 - 93 Toronto Blue Jays

The Red Sox are far and away the class of the division with their staff. The Yankees have a lineup but a questionable rotation. The Rays will take a step back with the loss of key players. The Jays should stink it up.

AL Central

1. 91 - 71 Minnesota Twins


2. 87 - 75 Chicago White Sox


3. 81 - 81 Detroit Tigers


4. 77 - 85 Cleveland Indians


5. 71 - 91 Kansas City Royals

The Twins have the tools to win this division. The White Sox will put up quite a fight though. The rest are just also rans.

AL West

1. 87 - 75 Texas Rangers


2. 85 - 77 Oakland Athletics


3. 80 - 82 Los Angeles Angels


4. 65 - 97 Seattle Mariners

The Rangers and As will duke it out for the playoff spot. The lineup of the Rangers should give them the edge.

NL East

1. 98 - 64 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 90 - 72 Atlanta Braves


3. 80 - 82 Florida Marlins


4. 70 - 92 New York Mets


5. 66 - 96 Washington Nationals

What's not to love about arguably the best rotation ever. The Braves however will compete mightily in the NL. The Mets and their putrid rotation will fall back this year.

NL Central

1. 89 - 73 Milwaukee Brewers


2. 86 - 76 St. Louis Cardinals


3. 82 - 80 Chicago Cubs


4. 82 - 80 Cincinnati Reds


5. 70 - 92 Houston Astros


6. 69 - 93 Pittsburgh Pirates

This will be the hardest division to win this year. I can honestly see any of the top 4 teams pulling it out. I like the Greinke addition and the Prince contract year to pull it out.

NL West

1. 91- 71 San Francisco Giants


2. 83 - 79 Los Angeles Dodgers


3. 81 - 81 Colorado Rockies


4. 78 - 84 San Diego Padres


5. 68 - 94 Arizona Diamondbacks

As usual, I am not sold on anything in this division except the Giants rotation.


AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas and Minnesota over New York
Boston over Minnesota

NL Playoffs
Phillies over Brewers and Braves over Giants
Phillies over Braves

World Series
Phillies over Boston

Play Ball

Scott Feldman throws out the first pitch of the 2010 season. Baseball is back, and that is a good thing. I was fortunate enough to attend the 2009 opener. It is hard to top the experience of an opening day game. Several opening day quick hits and then some player analysis.

Opening Day Thoughts

• First off kids, I found out that Santa is a Rangers fan. He sat 3 rows in front of me and handed out business cards all game long.
• Opening Day at the ballpark is a celebration of everything Texas. We had Nolan Ryan and Roger Staubach on the mound for the ceremonial first pitch. Staubach still has quite an arm and threw a great first pitch. I can't think of any 2 bigger names that you could put out there except the Lone Ranger. And yes, he was on the jumbotron leading our 9th inning rally. The singing of Deep in the Heart of Texas has much more passion than Take Me Out to the Ballgame. In this picture our goofy recent mascot Rowdy tries to catch the strike from Roger in his mouth.
• Steak Nachos - YES
• On the left field wall "Around the League" scoreboard, we kept highlighting the fact that Roy Halladay won his opening day game. That had to be intentional.
• Before the game started, a former paratrouper with no legs dropped into the stadium. Incredible.
• I am out of practice on clapping. When the game got wild in the late innings, my hands were beet red.
• I am pretty sure that if you start drinking hours before a 1 PM game, you might have some issues. Just my opinion.
• Speaking of which, the most awkward moment of the game belongs to Budweiser. They sponsored a between innings thing where they announced they would put people drinking Bud on the jumbotron. Guess what, they found NOBODY. For 30 seconds to a minute, just an icon on the screen. Jokes were rampant about how "I guess nobody drinks that stuff."
• 2 of the 9 Rangers come up to plate with Christian intro music. Josh Hamilton has Toby Mac and Chris Davis has Let it Fade by Jeremy Camp.
• I found a new route to the ballpark that had virtually no traffic. Take the Bush Turnpike (161) south until it ends. Drive over I 30 and take a right on SH 180. Take this over 360 all the way to Stadium drive. I had almost no traffic in and out of the game.
• The Lexus Club seats in the corners of the stadium are really good. They are priced at $25 for most games, have almost no lines for bathroom and food out back, and on the first base side are shaded from the sun. I will aim for these seats again.

Scouting Report

• Julio Borbon has a horrible looking swing. I am calling it the Slap Chop. He looks like he is hoping to foul off the pitch.
• Michael Young is solid. He picked right up where he left off. Solid hits.
• Josh Hamilton did not have the best day, but his swing looked good and his at bats were good. His arm in left kept a run from coming in.
• Vlad still has it. That guy has crazy extension. He looks like he is swinging a 12 foot tree or something. He also hit one of the farthest foul balls I have seen to the 3rd deck left of the foul pole. Also, what is his history with the Jays? They threw at his neck on the first pitch he saw.
• Nelson Cruz is really really good. He hit a 400 foot shot into the wind. He also has good range in the field. He cut off a line drive in the gap that I figured for a double at least and kept the runner at first.
• Chris Davis did not get any hits, but his at bats looked good. There were no ugly strikeouts.
• Salty was pretty weak at the plate until the last pitch of the game. He did his job and lifted it over the pulled in outfielders.
• Andres Blanco looks like he is not ready for the big leagues. Please come back quick Kinsler.
• Elvis Andrus pulled a good looking double play. His bat was so-so.
• 2-6 was dangerous in our lineup: Young, Hamilton, Vlad, Cruz, Davis. The rest were gimme outs most of the game.
• Scott Feldman is hard to judge. He got hit really hard. His box score line looks better than what I saw. A lot of rockets were hit right to people. In fairness, the winds were gusting up to 25 MPH and so that might have affected him. He settled down in the 5th, 6th, and 7th which is a good sign.
• Neftali Feliz needs a 2nd pitch. He topped out at 97 MPH and hitters were looking fastball all the way. Breaking pitches were automatic takes and most likely balls.
• Darren Oliver still has it at age 39. He should be valuable this season.
• Franky was decent in the closer role but made me nervous.
• Shaun Marcum had a quiet no hitter going at the park. He does not throw that hard (never saw him hit 90) but until the 7th, no one could hit his stuff except straight to a player.
• Adam Lind is the real deal. He made solid contact throughout the game.
• Vernon Wells looked like his old self. He crushed one off of Feldman and turned on a Feliz fastball. I am definitely bullish on him.
• Besides those 2, the Jays looked really really weak. Their lineup will not fare well in the AL East.

Salty about to hit the game winner:
The crowd goes wild!

Quit Fooling Yourself

I am tired of being saturated with overly hyped meaningless statistics. At least, I am 63.78% sure that I am. The film industry has been getting away it for years and this chicanery cannot go on. The is one of the few industries that publicly denies that inflation exists. The only inflation that they are aware of involves either bicycle tires or their own track record of success.

The only statistic that is publicly acknowledged is Gross Revenue, or how much money they took in. Now it is one thing to report a statistic such as this, but it is another thing to flaunt it. This film had the largest opening for a non-action film debuting on a second Thursday in July since 1974! I am sorry, but that is really disingenuous.

The business world does not fawn over Gross Revenue numbers like this. They use calculations like Net Profit and Return on Investment (Money you make / Money you spent). And guess what, companies don't break all time records every three weeks!

Another example is baseball. Aside from the sport's recent spotty numbers, they have not inflated their statistics. For instance, what if baseball did what the film industry does and multiply home runs by average price of admission? This year (2009) the average ticket price to a Yankees game is $72.97. The year before (2008) the average price was only $41.40. So Alex Rodriguez's 35 home runs last year would equal 1449. This year's 19 home runs equals 1386. So by the movie theater logic, he is 1 home run away from besting last year's rousing success. I don't think so. Let's go back to $5 dollar seats in 1961 and look at Roger Maris's amazing 61 home runs. Wait no, that only equals 305. ARod is almost 5 times better than Maris this year according to the industry.

So, what is the solution?
A simple acknowledgment of total ticket sales . Now there is once again a problem with this because the population has grown, but not near as much as prices have. Or maybe we can use a percentage of the total census that saw the movie. So in 2009, 17.5% of the population saw that movie. So for example, so far this year, roughly 47 million Americans have seen Transformers 2. Impressive. Current figures put the number of people in the country at 307 million. So Transformers 2 sold tickets to 15.33% of Americans. Now there is a statistic I can buy.

Let's put this in perspective a little. In 1993, Jurassic Park came out. So far, Transformers 2 has sold $30 million more than the Crichton classic. But wait, ticket prices were different back then. Jurassic Park sold more than 86.2 million tickets in America. In 1993, the estimated population was around 258 million people. Jurassic Park sold tickets to 33.41% of Americans.

So while Transformers 2 has grossed more than Jurassic Park did, Jurassic Park attracted twice as much of the population to the theater.

So if we unwind, all of the inflation gobbledygook, we are left with the following list of movies that were 'huge' in my conscious lifetime. And whether you liked the movies or not, you can remember that these movies were huge events out there.

1. Titanic-1997
2. Jurassic Park-1993
3. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace-1999
4. Forrest Gump-1994
5. The Lion King-1994
6. The Dark Knight-2008

Come on Hollywood, let's be realistic.

Opening Day 2009

Pregame Festivities

Balloons Released Around Noon


Rosters and Alumni


The Biggest Flag Ever


President Bush (43), Nolan Ryan, and owner Tom Hicks on the mound


View During the Game



My Dad and I During the 7th Inning Stretch



Thoughts from the Game

• If traffic was that bad for a Rangers game, I do not want to be out there within a week of a Cowboys game
• Ian Kinsler is hitting the ball very well. Everything was solid contact
• Michael Young is a very good defensive 3rd baseman
• Josh Hamilton has not found his groove yet, but his Willie Mays catch in center was great
• Nelson Cruz looked off on every play in right field, not a good sign
• Hank's Homies should be excited, he seems motivated this year
• Marlon Byrd continues to be too productive to ignore
• Chris Davis looked silly at the plate
• Salty showed why his bat earned the starting job
• Andrus was nimble and efficient, exactly what we want
• Millwood was fooling hitter all day, lots of sky high pop ups
• Grady Sizemore is fast... beat out a for sure double play by making it to 2nd
• Nothing like a packed house to fire up the troops
• Note to the home crowd, our pitchers throw worse when you get rowdy
• Opening Day is much better than Monday at the Office

2009 Baseball Predictions

So once again, I offer the greatest compilation of sports prognostication around. I crunched the numbers and added in my own special expertise. Without further adieu, the greatness:

AL East

1. 95 - 67 Boston Red Sox


2. 89 - 73 New York Yankees


3. 88 - 74 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 78 - 84 Toronto Blue Jays


5. 68 - 94 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. 85 - 77 Cleveland Indians


2. 84 - 80 Minnesota Twins


3. 83 - 78 Detroit Tigers


4. 81 - 71 Chicago White Sox


5. 74 - 88 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 88 - 74 Los Angeles Angels


2. 83 - 79 Texas Rangers


3. 80 - 82 Oakland Athletics


4. 69 - 93 Seattle Mariners

NL East

1. 90 - 72 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 87 - 75 New York Mets


3. 82 - 80 Florida Marlins


4. 75 - 87 Atlanta Braves


5. 72 - 90 Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. 91 - 71 Chicago Cubs


2. 89 - 73 St. Louis Cardinals


3. 86 - 76 Milwaukee Brewers


4. 82 - 80 Houston Astros


5. 74 - 88 Cincinnati Reds


6. 70 - 92 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 89 - 73 Los Angeles Dodgers


2. 83 - 79 Arizona Diamondbacks


3. 81 - 81 San Francisco Giants


4. 75 - 87 Colorado Rockies


5. 70 - 92 San Diego Padres

So according to that account the Playoffs look like:

American League: Boston, Cleveland, Los Angeles and New York

National League: Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, and St. Louis

World Series: Boston over Chicago

2009 Baseball Predictions Primer

In the past (2008 and 2007) I have made predictions about the outcome of the baseball season. I based these on the previous year's record and then added in my own personal adjustment. It is a fairly simple formula.

Previous Years Wins +/- Off-season Moves.

This year I am taking a different approach. I have run some regression statistics and will be using those. I figured that I would explain the process before I actually posted the predictions. I have run a regression analysis on the premise that Win Total is a function of OPS and WHIP. To make it simpler, Winning is a combination of Hitting and Pitching. I chose OPS and WHIP as indicators of each respectively. Running a regression analysis on the past 5 seasons, I came up with this formula:

Win Total = 55.19 + (192.8 * OPS) - (86.2 * WHIP)

Now, you may ask, "How accurate is that formula?" A good question. According to the regression model, the adjusted R squared is .7835. In other words, The above formula accounts for 78.35% of the reason wins are the total that they are. For baseball, this is a fairly strong relationship. There is obviously no way to account for random occurrences fully, so a good 21.65% is still left to chance and situational factors.

So with that formula in mind. I calculated how many wins each team would have won if that formula were perfect. I then took the difference between reality and prediction and multiplied it by 78.35%. So with that, I have come up with the Adjusted Win Total for each team last year.

I will use this as my base prior to adjustment this year rather than actual results. Why do I want to do this? I want to know how good teams were, not how lucky they were. Therefore my formula this year is:

Previous Years Adjusted Wins +/- Opinion of Off-season Moves.

So what exactly are the adjusted win totals that I will be working with?

AL East

1. 96 - 66 Boston Red Sox


2. 92 - 70 Tampa Bay Rays


3. 89 - 73 Toronto Blue Jays


4. 87 - 75 New York Yankees


5. 68 - 94 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. 91 - 71 Chicago White Sox


2. 84 - 78 Cleveland Indians


3. 84 - 78 Minnesota Twins


4. 76 - 86 Detroit Tigers


5. 75 - 87 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 88 - 74 Los Angeles Angels


2. 77 - 85 Texas Rangers


3. 72 - 88 Oakland Athletics


4. 61 - 101 Seattle Mariners

NL East

1. 88 - 74 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 85 - 77 New York Mets


3. 82 - 80 Florida Marlins


4. 77 - 85 Atlanta Braves


5. 63 - 99 Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. 98 - 64 Chicago Cubs


2. 87 - 75 Milwaukee Brewers


3. 87 - 75 St. Louis Cardinals


4. 81 - 81 Houston Astros


5. 71 - 91 Cincinnati Reds


6. 61 - 101 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 86 - 76 Arizona Diamondbacks


2. 85 - 77 Los Angeles Dodgers


3. 74 - 88 Colorado Rockies


4. 70 - 92 San Diego Padres


5. 68 - 94 San Francisco Giants

Which team was adjusted the most?
Los Angeles Angels (-12 wins)

Feel free to post comments or suggestions. Is there a stat that you think would be better to use than either OPS or WHIP?

Bear Down

How does a baseball team's ability to keep runner's from scoring affect their win total? Today I am going to look at the relationship between Team Wins and Left on Base %.

Team Wins
Number of total wins for a team

Left On Base %
The percentage of hitters that reach base but do not score.

I charted out 2008's values to see what kind of trendline it would generate. The Correlation is only about 60%, but if you remove the 1 obvious anomaly, it jumps to 70%.

It is quite obvious that holding runners or bearing down is a key component to winning. What determines how far a team is above or below the line? Hitting

The anomaly? That would be the 79 win Texas Rangers. The equation Wins = 435.37(LOB %) - 231.28 describes the slope of the line without the Rangers. That would peg the Rangers at 55 Wins last year based upon pitching.

The teams that were farthest from the line were (Actual to Equation):
Can't Hit
Seattle Mariners (61 to 77)
Washington Nationals (59 to 74)
San Diego Padres (63 to 77)

Hit a lot
Texas Rangers (79 to 55)
California Anaheim LA Angels (100 to 87)

Don't Hold Back

In preparation for the upcoming baseball season and because I am finishing up a statistics course, I am going to do a series on interesting stats from the great game. These are not necessarily original statistics, but the ones that I find interesting. All stats come from last season.

Fast Ball Percentage
To what degree do pitchers feel comfortable throwing the heat? Are they pretty sure that you will chase junk in the dirt? I think answers to these questions should help a player focus on areas to improve during the offseason. The average player sees about 60% fastballs when they come to the plate.

Let's start with players around the league who should swing early and assume fastball. Pitchers think that they cannot get around on a good fastball.

Player	Team	Fastball %
Juan Pierre	Dodgers	70.1 %
Chone Figgins	Angels	69.1 %
Placido Polanco	Tigers	68.1 %
Johnny Damon	Yankees	67.8 %
Matt Holliday	Rockies	67.0 %

Two Rangers this year need to take notice:

Player	Team	Fastball %
Taylor Teagarden	Rangers	70.8 %
Frank Catalanotto	Rangers	66.6 %

As far as players who can't hold back on any pitch, the following are in the cellar. Pitchers think that they can get them to whiff on anything with movement. If this group does not stay planted on their back feet, they are toast.

Player	Team	Fastball %
Alexei Ramirez	White Sox	47.0 %
Hunter Pence	Astros	49.8 %
Dan Uggla	Marlins	50.2 %
Aubrey Huff	Orioles	51.0 %
Ryan Howard	Phillies	51.2 %
Geovany Soto	Cubs	51.2 %

The offending Rangers are:

Player	Team	Fastball %
Hank Blalock	Rangers	53.2 %
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	53.4 %
Chris Davis	Rangers	55.3 %
Nelson Cruz	Rangers	55.4 %

That's So 2003

Today the media got all hyped up and was ready to lynch someone who dared offend them. They posted their 'questions they would have asked' and demanded answers. And today, Alex Rodriguez gave a bunch of answers. Answers that in my opinion are plausible and a demeanor that seemed believable. He claims that he stopped taking something 6 years ago.

If this press conference was held 6 years ago, 500% more fans would care and 5000% more average joes would care. The fact of the matter is that I, like most people, am over it. I have other things to worry about right now (job, savings, a house, grad school, work...). I may have given an impassioned response in the past, but not these days. I think a lot of people have reached this point. Let's move on.

Back when ARod quit using banned substances...

50 Cent and Evanescence had successful debut albums with Outkast's Hey Ya being the most downloaded song of the year.

The Lord of the Rings movies finally closed, Pirates of the Caribbean came out, 2 Matrix films hit the theaters, and Finding Nemo defined a 12 step program for sharks.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl over the Oakland Raiders... yes the very same joke of a team that we have today.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected Governor of California.

I was in college that year.

I wasn't even engaged to be married until the end of that year...

Caring about juiced players is sooo 2003.

The Doldrums

We went to check on the house today. Since we are done making decisions, I figure that they should be about done by now too. WRONG! Permits apparently take some time to go through. So until then, nothing happens on the lot.

This reminds of the baseball talk this time of year. Everyone is fishing for a story but is just scrambling for who knows what. Today I hear that "that the Rangers are 'considering' signing Andruw Jones." No one in their right mind would do such a thing. Further proof that things are puttering along waiting to be kicked into gear.

This is a view from about where Kimberlee's office will be:

Thank goodness that Spring Training is just around the corner.

Thoughts from Panera Bread

Free WiFi is awesome. It allows you to get out of the house and do the exact same thing as always, but with scenery. Panera Bread has given me the opportunity today and I am grateful. Obviously I am a little busy these days if I am posting from here, so let me throw some quick shots out today.

Sports
I am about footballed out right now. Being in Dallas, the Cowboys occupy 75% of the airwaves this time of year at a minimum. This team has done its best to take my little interest and step on it. The high school feuds that exist or are trumped up by the talking heads have me wishing for sports talk in place of the tabloid gossip.

The Ranger's off season so far has been non-dramatic which makes me somewhat happy. We sold on the down tick with Gerald Laird. His five tool player status along with his experience merits more than a high school kid and a slow to mature AA player. I don't think the return was horrid, but it was underwhelming. So far they have yet to sign a blockbuster player. Thank Goodness! Kerry Wood and his permanent spot on the disabled list went for over 10 million a year. Thankfully we are not weighing down our future with such contracts. I don't care how good you are (Teixeira, CC, etc.), 6+ year contracts are nuts in this league. It guaranteed... results are anything but. I for one would love to see contracts have a consistent base league-wide based on experience and then having significant bonuses tied to performance. 55 home runs one year brings in 8 million extra, the slump the next year to 21 homers only brings in 2 million. How much drama could we eliminate with such a system. How much easier to keep franchise players that build a fan base. Most likely it is too simple to actually happen.

Church
I have a structural engineer teaching our Young Marrieds class at church this quarter. This bodes well for both my excitement and my comprehension. I have a subtle feeling that some us may have to be translators if he gets too technical, but I bet his lessons won't be hard to understand.

Cinema
Once again the holidays are here and movies that technical have not been released are being considered for yearly honors. Just sad. I wish they would have awards that require 100 million in sales to get be eligible. No more artsy films that are only released in 17 theaters. I am not saying that all of these films stink, but at least talk about films that people have heard of. Using my new eligibility rules from above, here are the best films of the year based upon the buzz generated by the common man:


Roundhouse to the Oscars
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wall-E
Get Smart
Kung Fu Panda
Indiana Jones
High School Musical 3

Not the list that you will see anywhere near the Academy Awards, but certainly the list of movies that I have been hearing about.

New Laptop
I got a new laptop about a week ago. I am so pumped. The last computer purchase that I made was before I started college in the summer of 2000. I went with an Asus that I got off of NewEgg. It has an Intel Core2Duo P8600 processor, 4 Gigs of RAM, a 320 Gig Hard Drive, and a huge 1 Gig NVidia GeForce 9650 GT graphics card. The best games from my old system look like an Atari on an HD TV. Oh, and I got this since I started grad school this fall...

Heard While Making This Post
Weezer - Possibilities
The Calling - Wherever You Will Go
Jimmy Eat World - Sweetness

The Lighter Side

It is time for a post on the lighter side of things. I have noticed that Baseball has slipped to #2 on my topics list, so today I am going to help it and other topics get more recognition.

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It's Hot Stove Season in Baseball Land
Oh boy am I excited. Possible blockbuster deals and team upgrades make this time of year a fun time to keep up with the great game. Being in Texas, I don't see many of the big names coming here. I would love to trade Salty for a pitcher. Greinke appears to be a possibility that I would go for. Any trade must be for a promising pitcher. We don't need anything else right now.

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The Best Stadium?
Today on the lovely Ticket, the broadcasters boldly predicted that the new Dallas Cowboys stadium was so expensive, so luxurious, and so innovating that it would be the best sports stadium for at least 10 years. They justify this position by claiming that Jerry Jones is more ambitious and has more money to spend than anyone else.

I am going to boldly take the opposite side of this argument. I think it will be less than 5 years (probably 3) before some new stadium takes over the title. I can't count how many new stadiums were hailed as the best ever and would never be topped, all have since been dethroned. I guarantee that this one will be topped and saying otherwise is not a wise stance to take.

Now don't get me wrong, I think that it will be a great place for many years to see a game. But the best? I tend to think it will be outdone by someone and in the not-so-distant future.

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How To Cut In Line
Check out this article on the best ways to cut in line. A quick look:

researchers have tried to unpick the psychology of the queue, though most work has focused on reducing consumer frustration. However, one classic study found that New Yorkers were more likely to react to people who cut in front of them in a subway queue than behind.

Yankee fans only care about who is in front of them (Red Sox), they never see it coming from behind (Rays).

A cheap shot and off topic... you bet. Thoroughly satisfying... definitely.

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A Smart Choice
I rented Get Smart the other night and it exceeded my expectations. It had plenty of witty comedy, but kept from being downright silly. I give it a solid 4 out of 5.

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Too Long?
People often complain about the length of the Baseball season. 162 games is a long season. But now that both Hockey and Basketball have started up, I suggest that they feel longer. Baseball goes roughly from March through October, or about 8 months. Basketball and Hockey go from roughly November through June, or about 8 months. The difference to me is that at least in baseball, my team is playing every day or two, not every three to four. All of the down time combined with the length of the playoffs make the 'Winter' sports drag on and on.

I think that we might need to take the schedules down a notch, but let's apply it to several sports.

The Untouchables

The following is a list of baseball players that have 1 thing in common. See if you can guess it!

Batters
Carl Crawford
David Ortiz
Adam Dunn
Chone Figgins
Russell Martin
Eric Byrnes
Travis Hafner
Paul Konerko
Jeff Francoeur
Troy Tulowitzki
Todd Helton
Jorge Posada
Ivan Rdoriguez
Michael Cuddyer
Gary Matthews Jr.
Andruw Jones

Pitchers
Erik Bedard
Aaron Harang
Javier Vazquez
Justin Verlander
Fausto Carmona
JJ Putz
John Maine
Pedro Martinez
Chien-Ming Wang
Joe Blanton
Brad Penny
Jeff Francis
Clay Buchholz
Eric Gagne
CJ Wilson

Figured it out yet?

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These are all players that you should have avoided on draft day this season.

Yes, that is correct, this list of well knowns all stunk it up. Well maybe not all were awful, but they all produced much less than the preseason hype. Some broke down physically, other mentally, while others were just the cool pick of the year. There are many people that, upon looking at the above list last February, would call that a dream draft.

So you ask, what were the smart people buying?

Batters
Josh Hamilton
Dustin Pedroia
Ryan Ludwick
Aubrey Huff
Kevin Youkilis
Nate McLouth
Carlos Quentin
Carlos Delgado
Matt Kemp
Raul Ibanez
Jorge Cantu
Mark DeRosa
Xavier Nady
Andre Ethier
Milton Bradley
Randy Winn
Melvin Mora

Pitchers
Roy Halladay
Mariano Rivera
Cliff Lee
Tim Lincecum
Rich Harden
Joakim Soria
Justin Duchscherer
Ervin Santana
Ricky Nolasco
Grant Balfour
Mike Mussina

I hope that your team looked more like the 2nd list this year. Mine probably favored a little of both, but not enough of the second.

Season Awards

Now is the time of the year for the age old debate of who was the best of the year. A lot of people views these awards as definitive in validating a players place in history. I think I can judge from this year's list of candidates that there are many difficult and maybe even arbitrary decisions to be made. Here is how I break down the races:

AL MVP
1. Justin Morneau - .308 BA, 23 HR, 129 RBI
2. Dustin Pedroia - .325 BA, 17 HR, 118 Runs
3. Carlos Quentin - .288 BA, 36 HR, 100 Runs
4. Grady Sizemore - .272 BA, 33 HR, 38 SB
5. Josh Hamilton - .304 BA, 34 HR, 126 RBI

NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols - .350 BA, 34 HR, 108 RBI
2. David Wright - .300 BA, 33 HR, 123 RBI
3. Lance Berkman - .314 BA, 29 HR, 104 RBI
4. Hanley Ramirez - .298 BA, 33 HR, 122 Runs, 33 SB
5. Matt Holliday - .321 BA, 25 HR, 107 Runs

AL Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee - 22-3, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 Ks
2. Roy Halladay - 19-11, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 201 Ks
3. Ervin Santana - 16-6, 3,25 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 209 Ks
4. Francisco Rodriguez - 62 Saves, 2.27 ERA
5. Mariano Rivera - 38 Saves, 1.43 ERA, 0.68 WHIP

NL Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecom - 17-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 248 Ks
2. Brandon Webb - 22-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 176 Ks
3. Johan Santana - 15-7, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 197 Ks
4. CC Sabathia - 16-10, 2.80 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 244 Ks
5. Ryan Dempster - 17-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 183 Ks

On the Edge of My Seat

The Carrot Has Been Dangled
Today is the 20th of August, 2008. The show's big star has all of the contestants lined up. There is silence among them. A grimace from one who can not handle the pressure. A look of quiet confidence from another. Who will be picked? Who will be deemed worthy of the prize? They have all courted in one way or another. The star has spent time with all of them, but now it all comes down to this special point in time. Bom, bom, bom! ...And we go to commercial. Come on! Just tell me already. Am I talking about the TV show the Bachelor? Not a chance. I am talking about the Veepstakes. Who is going to be the running mate in the election? Just tell me already! The anticipation is killing me...

Yes, It Was Me
You may be wondering who jinxed the Texas Rangers, that would be me. In my previous blog, I warned the Dallas Cowboys to watch out and put the region on notice. Since that time, they have gone 2-10, lost Ian Kinsler, thrown poor stand-ins up against major league hitters, and basically lost all interest from the city. Way to go guys!

and Yes, I am still Watching
According to Forbes magazine, the Texas Rangers have the most loyal fans in baseball.

No team's attendance is less tied to its on the field performance than the Rangers', and nowhere else in the country do fans peel off at a slower rate when the club has thin years.

I am not sure that is something to brag about. But yes, count me in that hapless group.

Where's the Passion?
The Cowboys are tanking the pre-season. Fine, the Indianapolis Colts do it every year. But this assumed Super Bowl contender needs to find motivation. My fear is that the Cowboys are going to take 2-4 weeks in the regular season to find that special something. You can't afford to do that in today's NFL. I am not sold on this team yet...

This Just In
Poll results change more often than the weather. McCain is up by 5! Obama is up by 5! Its a toss up, but I think Obama has it! Not only that, all of these results are at the exact same time. I am personally part of that swing 10% of voters that flips a coin before a pollster gets an answer out of me.

My Hero
Josh Howard apparently went off on a reporter for asking him at a youth event whether or not he is a good role model. I guess the admitted drug use, street racing, and not showing up for his team could be emulated. Of course, that lifestyle doesn't lend itself to being successful in life. Someone please get this joker out of my town...

What a Difference a Year Makes

Dallas - Fort Worth is abuzz right now with sports talk. It was last year too, but the subject has changed. Within a year, the Rangers have leapfrogged past the Mavericks into #2 in this sports town. It is 1 week from Cowboys training camp and I haven't heard too much talk about it other than station promos. Last year, training camp talk started in June. One year ago today I had half my fantasy football draft list done; this year I have no clue about that league. What a great time this is. The Cowboys are preseason NFC favorites and the Rangers are showing us a glimpse of a fun future. What makes this even more fun is that the guys involved are fun to root for. We aren't looking at overpaid ringers on the Rangers, we are looking are young talents trying to prove themselves. Its a great time to be a sports fan and I am just soaking up every minute of it.

2008 Baseball Predictions

Last year I had the good fortune of putting my oh so prescient baseball predictions down in writing. Therefore this year I must at least do my part in predicting the upcoming season. Playoff teams are in italics. Bold if they make it to the League Championship. In the end I pick the Detroit Tigers over the New York Mets.

AL East

1. 90-72 Boston Red Sox


2. 88-74 New York Yankees


3. 79-83 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 74-88 Toronto Blue Jays


5. 67-95 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. 94-68 Detroit Tigers


2. 91-71 Cleveland Indians


3. 79-83 Chicago White Sox


4. 73-89 Minnesota Twins


5. 70-92 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 92-70 Los Angeles Angels


2. 85-77 Seattle Mariners


3. 79-83 Texas Rangers


4. 72-90 Oakland Athletics

NL East

1. 91-71 New York Mets


2. 89-73 Philadelphia Phillies


3. 85-77 Atlanta Braves


4. 73-89 Washington Nationals


5. 68-94 Florida Marlins

NL Central

1. 88-74 Chicago Cubs


2. 83-79 Milwaukee Brewers


3. 82-80 Cincinnati Reds


4. 78-84 Houston Astros


5. 77-85 St. Louis Cardinals


6. 69-93 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 91-71 Arizona Diamondbacks


2. 86-76 Colorado Rockies


3. 85-77 San Diego Padres


4. 82-80 Los Angeles Dodgers


5. 69-93 San Francisco Giants