Voters Registration

Once again the debate is on for who should win each baseball award. So here are the hypothetical votes that I would submit and which awards I would vote for.

Best Pitcher - Cy Young Award
This is the award for who had the best stuff during the entire year.

Rank	AL	NL
1	CC Sabathia	Roy Halladay
2	Justin Verlander	Clayton Kershaw
3	Dan Haren	Cliff Lee
4	Jered Weaver	Madison Bumgarner
5	C.J. Wilson	Matt Cain
6	Doug Fister	Matt Garza
7	Felix Hernandez	Cole Hamels
8	David Price	Ian Kennedy
9	James Shields	Daniel Hudson
10	Justin Masterson	Tim Lincecum

Best Non-Pitcher - The Babe Ruth Award
This is the award for the best position player. Both hitting and fielding are considered

Rank	AL	NL
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	Matt Kemp
2	Jose Bautista	Ryan Braun
3	Ian Kinsler	Joey Votto
4	Dustin Pedroia	Justin Upton
5	Miguel Cabrera	Troy Tulowitzki
6	Curtis Granderson	Jose Reyes
7	Alex Gordon	Brandon Phillips
8	Adrian Gonzalez	Shane Victorino
9	Ben Zobrist	Andrew McCutchen
10	Adrian Beltre	Prince Fielder

Most Valuable Player - Lou Gehrig Award
This is the award for the person who added the most during games to get their team a win.

Rank	AL	NL
1	Jose Bautista	Prince Fielder
2	Miguel Cabrera	Joey Votto
3	Jacoby Ellsbury	Matt Kemp
4	Josh Hamilton	Ryan Braun
5	Justin Verlander	Lance Berkman
6	Jered Weaver	Ian Kennedy
7	James Shields	Roy Halladay
8	Dan Haren	Cliff Lee
9	Ricky Romero	Cole Hamels
10	Josh Beckett	Albert Pujols

Gold Glove Award
This award is for the best fielder at each position per league.

Position	AL	NL
Catcher	Matt Wieters	Jonathan Lucroy
First Base	Adrian Gonzalez	Joey Votto
Second Base	Dustin Pedroia	Brandon Phillips
Short Stop	Alexei Ramirez	Clint Barmes
Third Base	Adrian Beltre	Placido Polanco
Left Field	Brett Gardner	Gerardo Parra
Center Field	Jacoby Ellsbury	Chris Young
Right Field	David DeJesus	Jason Heyward
Pitcher	Felix Hernandez	Jake Westbrook

Deathly Hallows

Spoiler Alert

The last movie and final movie is over and it was thoroughly satisfying. The movie enhanced the books. Once again a great story and good acting rise above cinematic gimmicks (I saw the 2D version, more on that later). The child actors have certainly grown, but the surrounding giants allow the film and series to excel.

In the final film, several performances stood out. They were helped by their excellent situations, but they took it to the next level. Ralph Fiennes as Tom Riddle was great. The steady deterioration due to parts of his soul being obliterated was done quite well. The quick transitions from pompous triumph to shocked vulnerability were excellent. Matthew Lewis played Neville Longbottom to a T. Limping to his defiant speech and then ignorantly and boldly challenging Voldemort was a highlight of the film. Helena Bonham Carter playing Hermione Granger using a polyjuice potion to play Bellatrix Lestrange was very convincing. Just like part 1, I enjoy watching actors play characters pretending to be other characters. Those 3 exceeded expectations. The others certainly did well and my high standards were met.

3D Rant
I realize that 3D allows you to charge extra to attend a movie, but it typically adds very little to the actual movie (unless it is a low budget 80s monster flick). There were several spots that I am sure would look fun in 3D (e.g. the Gringott's Mine Train). The real travesty to me was that the 2D experience was affected by this. Several times I could tell that rather than the background being out of focus, it was actually doubled up like a 3D film would look without glasses. Unacceptable.

Intermission
Grand films might just need a break. This is not a new idea at all. Movies such as Ben Hur and Lawrence of Arabia had intermissions. Why? Because they were really long. But also because they were a single idea and could not be split up. The Deathly Hallows was split in two at its most logical point, but the story really works as a whole. The drama and setup in part one is entirely unfulfilling. The action of part two really makes little sense without part one. The other epic conclusion this century was 3.5 hours in theaters and 5 hours on extended DVD, yet The Return of the King only makes sense in that context. It could have been split after the battle of Minas Tirith. It makes logical sense but not emotional sense. The ups and downs of a movie need to be there. Separate them by 8 months and you lose all of the buildup that works in the ending of the film. I suggest that the best way to watch both films is to watch part one, take an hour break for food, and then watch part two. As soon as the DVD comes out, I think it will make both parts of this film that much better. The Deathly Hallows as a whole might just be the best movie in the series.

Saber Answer to 300 Wins

Yesterday I took on the 3000 hits plateau. Today, 300 wins. Trying to smooth out longevity and performance is difficult with pitchers. There are so many eras out there. This list because of its components is skewed towards the former days. I considered all outings since 1890 so that Cy Young would be involved. In the 1880s some pitchers threw up to 650 innings in a year and really skewed things. But for simplicity sake, I chose Innings Pitched divided by WHIP minus 1 times 2. Boy that seems complicated doesn't it. Basically it measures longevity in innings pitched. Performance is measured by (WHIP - 1) * 2. This takes CY Young's WHIP of 1.13, turns it into .13, and then finally into .26. The times 2 part keeps some rarely used pitchers with good stats from sneaking too far up the ladder. I also limited this to pitcher with > 1500 innings pitched. Without that restriction, Mariano Rivera is the greatest pitcher ever (which you could argue for I guess). So without further ado, here is the list:

Rank	Name	Wins	W Rank	IP	WHIP	New Stat
1	Walter Johnson	417	2	5914.2	1.06	48338
2	Christy Mathewson	373	3	4780.2	1.05	40543
3	Cy Young	511	1	7354.2	1.12	28322
4	Pedro Martinez	219	63	2827.1	1.05	25966
5	Mordecai Brown	239	46	3172.1	1.06	24083
6	Pete Alexander	373	3	5190	1.12	21411
7	Tom Seaver	311	15	4782.2	1.12	19755
8	Eddie Plank	326	10	4495.2	1.11	18891
9	Don Sutton	324	11	5282	1.14	18525
10	Greg Maddux	355	7	5008.1	1.14	17492
11	Juan Marichal	243	42	3507.1	1.10	17328
12	Babe Adams	194	107	2995.1	1.09	16257
13	Fergie Jenkins	284	23	4500.2	1.14	15851
14	Gaylord Perry	314	14	5350.1	1.18	14801
15	Rube Waddell	193	115	2961.1	1.10	14521
16	Roger Clemens	354	8	4916.2	1.17	14237
17	Robin Roberts	286	22	4688.2	1.16	13809
18	Warren Spahn	363	5	5243.2	1.19	13465
19	Chief Bender	212	75	3017	1.11	13385
20	Catfish Hunter	224	55	3449.1	1.13	12849
21	Bert Blyleven	287	21	4970	1.19	12551
22	Doc White	189	121	3041	1.12	12429
23	Deacon Phillippe	189	121	2607	1.10	12402
24	Randy Johnson	303	17	4135.1	1.17	12077
25	Curt Schilling	216	68	3261	1.13	11868
26	Don Drysdale	209	81	3432	1.14	11616
27	Kid Nichols	361	6	5056.1	1.22	11372
28	Jim Palmer	268	28	3948	1.18	10945
29	Sandy Koufax	165	177	2324.1	1.10	10938
30	Nolan Ryan	324	11	5386	1.24	10889
31	Carl Hubbell	253	35	3590.1	1.16	10814
32	Steve Carlton	329	9	5217.1	1.24	10566
33	Jim Bunning	224	55	3760.1	1.17	10505
34	Eddie Cicotte	208	84	3223.1	1.15	10369
35	Bob Gibson	251	36	3884.1	1.18	10320
36	Dennis Eckersley	197	98	3285.2	1.16	10204
37	Jack Powell	245	40	4389	1.21	10127
38	Phil Niekro	318	13	5404.1	1.26	10078
39	John Smoltz	213	74	3473	1.17	9870
40	Jack Chesbro	198	95	2896.2	1.15	9623
41	Vic Willis	249	37	3996	1.20	9538
42	Sam Leever	194	107	2660.2	1.14	9415
43	Mike Mussina	270	26	3562.2	1.19	9292
44	Ed Reulbach	182	136	2632.1	1.14	9190
45	Joe McGinnity	246	39	3441.1	1.18	9152
46	Bret Saberhagen	167	167	2562.2	1.14	9097
47	Hoyt Wilhelm	143	240	2254.1	1.12	9044
48	Luis Tiant	229	52	3486.1	1.19	8769
49	Jim Kaat	283	24	4530.1	1.25	8748
50	Tommy John	288	20	4710.1	1.28	8328

The winners? Pedro Martinez and his 219 wins. Lots of people from the early days... Sandy Koufax and his short lived career.

The losers? Lefty Grove and his 1.28 WHIP. Tom Glavine and his 1.31 WHIP.

Saber Answer to 3000 Hits

3000 hits is always a fun topic. Does it mean anything or is it arbitrary? I decided to come up with a new stat to judge hitters by: Plate Appearances times On Base Percentage. This combines longevity with performance. How does this redefine our top hitters? Currently 27 players have 3000 or more hits. If we sort by PA * OBP, we have to show 76 players to see those 27.

Rank	Name	H	Hit Rank	OBP	PA * OBP
1	Pete Rose	4256	1	0.373	5929
2	Barry Bonds	2935	32	0.444	5599
3	Ty Cobb	4189	2	0.423	5532
4	Rickey Henderson	3055	21	0.400	5343
5	Carl Yastrzemski	3419	6	0.379	5304
6	Stan Musial	3630	4	0.415	5282
7	Hank Aaron	3771	3	0.373	5205
8	Tris Speaker	3514	5	0.416	4998
9	Babe Ruth	2873	40	0.468	4978
10	Eddie Collins	3315	10	0.406	4891
11	Willie Mays	3283	11	0.383	4791
12	Ted Williams	2654	71	0.481	4714
13	Mel Ott	2876	39	0.409	4648
14	Eddie Murray	3255	12	0.359	4606
15	Frank Robinson	2943	31	0.388	4561
16	Craig Biggio	3060	20	0.360	4505
17	Honus Wagner	3415	8	0.383	4503
18	Rafael Palmeiro	3020	24	0.370	4460
19	Paul Molitor	3319	9	0.366	4460
20	Wade Boggs	3010	25	0.413	4445
21	Cap Anson	3418	7	0.391	4433
22	Joe Morgan	2517	91	0.390	4422
23	Cal Ripken	3184	14	0.339	4379
24	Dave Winfield	3110	19	0.352	4351
25	Al Kaline	3007	26	0.374	4339
26	Gary Sheffield	2689	63	0.392	4299
27	George Brett	3154	15	0.368	4283
28	Paul Waner	3152	16	0.397	4281
29	Lou Gehrig	2721	57	0.442	4274
30	Frank Thomas	2468	99	0.419	4222
31	Ken Griffey Jr.	2781	48	0.369	4174
32	Mickey Mantle	2415	112	0.419	4161
33	Robin Yount	3142	17	0.339	4156
34	Derek Jeter	2997	28	0.380	4125
35	Jimmie Foxx	2646	72	0.425	4111
36	Rod Carew	3053	22	0.388	4096
37	Charlie Gehringer	2839	45	0.398	4075
38	Alex Rodriguez	2762	50	0.385	4069
39	Luke Appling	2749	52	0.396	4062
40	Reggie Jackson	2584	81	0.355	4055
41	Rusty Staub	2716	58	0.360	4050
42	Chipper Jones	2562	85	0.403	4020
43	Rogers Hornsby	2930	34	0.423	4016
44	Manny Ramirez	2574	83	0.410	4012
45	Jim Thome	2239	160	0.403	4007
46	Tim Raines	2605	75	0.383	3977
47	Tony Gwynn	3141	18	0.386	3955
48	Jesse Burkett	2850	42	0.411	3954
49	Harold Baines	2866	41	0.355	3942
50	Omar Vizquel	2831	46	0.330	3898
51	Nap Lajoie	3242	13	0.372	3892
52	Dwight Evans	2446	108	0.368	3890
53	Darrell Evans	2223	167	0.359	3863
54	Luis Gonzalez	2591	79	0.366	3857
55	Jeff Bagwell	2314	138	0.407	3843
56	Fred McGriff	2490	96	0.376	3834
57	Lou Brock	3023	23	0.341	3833
58	Mike Schmidt	2234	162	0.379	3820
59	Richie Ashburn	2574	83	0.391	3815
60	Roberto Alomar	2724	56	0.365	3806
61	Billy Williams	2711	61	0.361	3799
62	Eddie Mathews	2315	137	0.374	3785
63	Max Carey	2665	66	0.351	3782
64	Bobby Abreu	2342	127	0.399	3771
65	Brooks Robinson	2848	43	0.319	3761
66	Sam Rice	2987	29	0.366	3751
67	Sam Crawford	2961	30	0.353	3744
68	Goose Goslin	2735	54	0.380	3739
69	Jake Beckley	2930	34	0.356	3729
70	Tony Perez	2732	55	0.340	3700
71	Fred Clarke	2672	65	0.376	3699
72	Harmon Killebrew	2086	222	0.375	3693
73	Harry Hooper	2466	101	0.359	3678
74	Johnny Damon	2662	68	0.352	3663
75	Bill Dahlen	2457	105	0.352	3661
76	Roberto Clemente	3000	27	0.358	3656
77	Frankie Frisch	2880	38	0.360	3639
78	Willie McCovey	2211	171	0.374	3625
79	Edgar Martinez	2247	159	0.417	3619
80	Zack Wheat	2884	37	0.361	3611
81	Todd Helton	2318	136	0.422	3605
82	George Davis	2660	69	0.355	3605
83	John Olerud	2239	160	0.397	3602
84	Chili Davis	2380	117	0.359	3589
85	Lou Whitaker	2369	120	0.359	3586
86	Willie Keeler	2932	33	0.373	3585
87	Eddie Yost	1863	332	0.389	3576
88	Al Simmons	2927	36	0.375	3572
89	Ozzie Smith	2460	103	0.330	3565
90	Harry Heilmann	2660	69	0.396	3556
91	Mark Grace	2445	109	0.382	3554
92	Brett Butler	2375	119	0.371	3542
93	Julio Franco	2586	80	0.363	3541
94	Nellie Fox	2663	67	0.340	3524
95	Roger Connor	2467	100	0.396	3507
96	Mickey Vernon	2495	95	0.355	3499
97	Willie Randolph	2210	172	0.368	3491
98	Rabbit Maranville	2605	75	0.309	3483
99	Andre Dawson	2774	49	0.322	3474
100	Dave Parker	2712	60	0.338	3451

So who wins using this system? Well, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams all move up. Not bad at all.

Who loses? Roberto Clemente (twice as many strikeouts as walks), Lou Brock (over 1700 strikeouts)

So using that stat... hitters with a PA*OBP > 4500 would be:

1. Pete Rose
2. Barry Bonds
3. Ty Cobb
4. Rickey Henderson
5. Carl Yastrzemski
6. Stan Musial
7. Hank Aaron
8. Tris Speaker
9. Babe Ruth
10. Eddie Collins
11. Willie Mays
12. Ted Williams
13. Mel Ott
14. Eddie Murray
15. Frank Robinson
16. Craig Biggio
17. Honus Wagner

Not a bad group to be in.

2011 Baseball Predictions

In the past (2009, 2008, and 2007) I have made predictions about the outcome of the baseball season. I based these on the previous year's record and then added in my own personal adjustment. It is a fairly simple formula.

Previous Years Wins +/- Off-season Moves.

This years predictions are below:

AL East

1. 97 - 65 Boston Red Sox


2. 88 - 74 New York Yankees


3. 82 - 80 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 74 - 88 Baltimore Orioles


5. 69 - 93 Toronto Blue Jays

The Red Sox are far and away the class of the division with their staff. The Yankees have a lineup but a questionable rotation. The Rays will take a step back with the loss of key players. The Jays should stink it up.

AL Central

1. 91 - 71 Minnesota Twins


2. 87 - 75 Chicago White Sox


3. 81 - 81 Detroit Tigers


4. 77 - 85 Cleveland Indians


5. 71 - 91 Kansas City Royals

The Twins have the tools to win this division. The White Sox will put up quite a fight though. The rest are just also rans.

AL West

1. 87 - 75 Texas Rangers


2. 85 - 77 Oakland Athletics


3. 80 - 82 Los Angeles Angels


4. 65 - 97 Seattle Mariners

The Rangers and As will duke it out for the playoff spot. The lineup of the Rangers should give them the edge.

NL East

1. 98 - 64 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 90 - 72 Atlanta Braves


3. 80 - 82 Florida Marlins


4. 70 - 92 New York Mets


5. 66 - 96 Washington Nationals

What's not to love about arguably the best rotation ever. The Braves however will compete mightily in the NL. The Mets and their putrid rotation will fall back this year.

NL Central

1. 89 - 73 Milwaukee Brewers


2. 86 - 76 St. Louis Cardinals


3. 82 - 80 Chicago Cubs


4. 82 - 80 Cincinnati Reds


5. 70 - 92 Houston Astros


6. 69 - 93 Pittsburgh Pirates

This will be the hardest division to win this year. I can honestly see any of the top 4 teams pulling it out. I like the Greinke addition and the Prince contract year to pull it out.

NL West

1. 91- 71 San Francisco Giants


2. 83 - 79 Los Angeles Dodgers


3. 81 - 81 Colorado Rockies


4. 78 - 84 San Diego Padres


5. 68 - 94 Arizona Diamondbacks

As usual, I am not sold on anything in this division except the Giants rotation.


AL Playoffs
Boston over Texas and Minnesota over New York
Boston over Minnesota

NL Playoffs
Phillies over Brewers and Braves over Giants
Phillies over Braves

World Series
Phillies over Boston

January Lessons

So how is this for a New Year's resolution? Invest better. Better yet, look at your investments rather than just open a statement once a quarter. This is a time consuming pursuit, but one that could be very worthwhile. My portfolio has beat the S&P 2 years in a row now. Pretty impressive until I mention that I made 0 moves during that time frame. Perhaps that works out best... we shall see.

What is the easiest way for me to become interested in something? Why join a fantasy league of course. Yes they do have those. Unlike sports related leagues this only has one category: Return on Investment. I managed to eek out 6 basis points higher than the S&P during the first month. Impressive I know. One important note here is to say that this is 'fake' investing for the purpose of gaining knowledge. I have not make actual investments in any of the thing I will reference.

Lessons

• Emerging Market Valuations are highly suspect. Everyone for instance wants a piece of the Chinese market right now. Make sure that it is a credible analyst providing information. Several companies were stung by corruption and bad accounting in January. Their touting analysts were somewhat complicit. I am not saying that company is necessarily bad, just that some numbers may be way off. A good example of this would be RINO or CVVT that both got stung.
• Valuations are based on available data. Using old data right before earnings reports come out puts you behind in the game.
• Publicity does not guaranty that a stock will go up. Good news in the press does not always mean good news for your portfolio.
• Ultra ETFs try to double or triple the return of a given index. Inverse ones do the same thing but bet the thing will go down. These can seem too good to be true. They can be useful, but take extreme caution.
• Betting on earnings is a risky game. This goes back to the publicity thing as well. Just because they beat earnings does not mean that their future forecast is favorable.

So at this point you are probably laughing at these realizations, but there they are. Now what DID work for me?

• Choosing companies with High Profit Margins and High Earnings per Share Growth. e.g. ISRG or FSLR or GLW
• Related to that, I also chose items with High Profit Margins and Low PEG Ratios (PE Ratio / EPS Growth) eg. MU
• Last, betting that Silver and Gold was overpriced and would go down. This was pure luck and have decided to stay out of that.

Hopefully February will be even better. Now for those of you wondering. I am not an investment professional. I have no personal stake in the stocks mentioned here in either real money or a fake portfolio at this time.

Play Ball

Scott Feldman throws out the first pitch of the 2010 season. Baseball is back, and that is a good thing. I was fortunate enough to attend the 2009 opener. It is hard to top the experience of an opening day game. Several opening day quick hits and then some player analysis.

Opening Day Thoughts

• First off kids, I found out that Santa is a Rangers fan. He sat 3 rows in front of me and handed out business cards all game long.
• Opening Day at the ballpark is a celebration of everything Texas. We had Nolan Ryan and Roger Staubach on the mound for the ceremonial first pitch. Staubach still has quite an arm and threw a great first pitch. I can't think of any 2 bigger names that you could put out there except the Lone Ranger. And yes, he was on the jumbotron leading our 9th inning rally. The singing of Deep in the Heart of Texas has much more passion than Take Me Out to the Ballgame. In this picture our goofy recent mascot Rowdy tries to catch the strike from Roger in his mouth.
• Steak Nachos - YES
• On the left field wall "Around the League" scoreboard, we kept highlighting the fact that Roy Halladay won his opening day game. That had to be intentional.
• Before the game started, a former paratrouper with no legs dropped into the stadium. Incredible.
• I am out of practice on clapping. When the game got wild in the late innings, my hands were beet red.
• I am pretty sure that if you start drinking hours before a 1 PM game, you might have some issues. Just my opinion.
• Speaking of which, the most awkward moment of the game belongs to Budweiser. They sponsored a between innings thing where they announced they would put people drinking Bud on the jumbotron. Guess what, they found NOBODY. For 30 seconds to a minute, just an icon on the screen. Jokes were rampant about how "I guess nobody drinks that stuff."
• 2 of the 9 Rangers come up to plate with Christian intro music. Josh Hamilton has Toby Mac and Chris Davis has Let it Fade by Jeremy Camp.
• I found a new route to the ballpark that had virtually no traffic. Take the Bush Turnpike (161) south until it ends. Drive over I 30 and take a right on SH 180. Take this over 360 all the way to Stadium drive. I had almost no traffic in and out of the game.
• The Lexus Club seats in the corners of the stadium are really good. They are priced at $25 for most games, have almost no lines for bathroom and food out back, and on the first base side are shaded from the sun. I will aim for these seats again.

Scouting Report

• Julio Borbon has a horrible looking swing. I am calling it the Slap Chop. He looks like he is hoping to foul off the pitch.
• Michael Young is solid. He picked right up where he left off. Solid hits.
• Josh Hamilton did not have the best day, but his swing looked good and his at bats were good. His arm in left kept a run from coming in.
• Vlad still has it. That guy has crazy extension. He looks like he is swinging a 12 foot tree or something. He also hit one of the farthest foul balls I have seen to the 3rd deck left of the foul pole. Also, what is his history with the Jays? They threw at his neck on the first pitch he saw.
• Nelson Cruz is really really good. He hit a 400 foot shot into the wind. He also has good range in the field. He cut off a line drive in the gap that I figured for a double at least and kept the runner at first.
• Chris Davis did not get any hits, but his at bats looked good. There were no ugly strikeouts.
• Salty was pretty weak at the plate until the last pitch of the game. He did his job and lifted it over the pulled in outfielders.
• Andres Blanco looks like he is not ready for the big leagues. Please come back quick Kinsler.
• Elvis Andrus pulled a good looking double play. His bat was so-so.
• 2-6 was dangerous in our lineup: Young, Hamilton, Vlad, Cruz, Davis. The rest were gimme outs most of the game.
• Scott Feldman is hard to judge. He got hit really hard. His box score line looks better than what I saw. A lot of rockets were hit right to people. In fairness, the winds were gusting up to 25 MPH and so that might have affected him. He settled down in the 5th, 6th, and 7th which is a good sign.
• Neftali Feliz needs a 2nd pitch. He topped out at 97 MPH and hitters were looking fastball all the way. Breaking pitches were automatic takes and most likely balls.
• Darren Oliver still has it at age 39. He should be valuable this season.
• Franky was decent in the closer role but made me nervous.
• Shaun Marcum had a quiet no hitter going at the park. He does not throw that hard (never saw him hit 90) but until the 7th, no one could hit his stuff except straight to a player.
• Adam Lind is the real deal. He made solid contact throughout the game.
• Vernon Wells looked like his old self. He crushed one off of Feldman and turned on a Feliz fastball. I am definitely bullish on him.
• Besides those 2, the Jays looked really really weak. Their lineup will not fare well in the AL East.

Salty about to hit the game winner:
The crowd goes wild!

2000s - Movies

I figured I should join in on the best of the decade talk. I have read lots of lists and seen some consensus, but everyone seems to have their individual flair. I decided to go with a different criteria than the rest, so my list will not be filled with critically acclaimed artsy films. I am basing this list upon nothing less than "Rewatchability". I have seen lots of films that were good this decade, but it turns out that I don't want to watch a lot of them over and over again. I also notably left out some recent movies because I frankly don't know yet if I will want to watch them over and over again. So I made the following list counting down the films that I have watched countless times and that I think I will continue to watch in the decades to come.

10. Gladiator This movie is known for its action sequences, but the famous monologue that screams righteous defiance is the pivotal point in the film. "My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, Commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the next." The cheap political pandering that Commodus tries is still a tactic used today. The movie is probably short on historical accuracy, but comes up big in its defining moments.

9. Lord of the Rings: the Two Towers I will admit that I own the super-extended version of the series. All 13 hours of it. But what do I want to watch over and over again? The Battle of Helms Deep. The main ideas that it conveys are that you can "Lay Down and Give Up or Fight for what You Hold Dear" and that "There are No Neutral Parties because all are affected". Like its predecessor, the cgi balrog scenes are great to watch. Gimli and Legolas baiting each other during battles successfully lightens the mood. The scene with the Uruk-Hai smashing their shields in front of Helms Deep is the most memorable point in the film.

8. National Treasure For History Channel nerds, this movie had enough truth in it to make it enjoyable. Everyone loves a good treasure hunt as well and this movie delivered. Its just a fun film to get in to. I am sure that the historical sites have had to beef up security because of tourists wanting to see the 'secret passageways' and such. Nicolas Cage plays his stereotypical self, but for once it may actually be called for.

7. Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl This is a film that caught people of guard with its strong characters that defied convention. It is way too much fun and humorous for a swashbuckling tale. The film also defined Johnny Depp. His quirky self keeps reappearing in other films such as Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Alice in Wonderland. It will be interesting to see if he can escape the typecasting. The film's successors tried to remake the magic, but the original is by far the best. "I think we've all arrived at a very special place. Spiritually, ecumenically, grammatically."

6. Harry Potter Yup, I am one of these people. I have read all of the books. I have seen all of the movies multiple times. For some reason these are comfort movies for me. I do not think that they are Oscar worthy; but when nothing else comes to mind, I will watch any one of them. My favorite so far is The Prisoner of Azkaban and its time travel sequence. Like almost all instances, the books are better. The later ones are so long that they cut out many key things in the films. If you need more of the backstory, read the originals.

5. Elf This over the top bowl of sillyness is always good for a laugh. The notable quotes are abundant and the fact that it does not take itself too seriously adds to the humor. If you have a chance, check out the soundtrack as well. Faizon Love's scenes as the Gimbel's manager are probably my favorite. Who can forget: "Buddy the elf, What's your favorite color"

4. Night at the Museum Another nod to us supposed smart people. The humor is slapstick and is frankly my style. Mickey Rooney (Andy Hardy movies) and Dick Van Dyke (tons of stuff, with Diagnosis Murder being the most recent) are old favorites of mine and they play their part well. The scenes of Ben Stiller and Dexter, the capuchin monkey, slapping each other are great. Octavius and Jedediah are greatness together. Like many fell good movies, it has a great dance scene at the end. This light-hearted fun is a great way to unwind.

3. Oceans Eleven The movie Maverick said it best: "there is no more deeply satisfying religious experience... than cheatin' on a cheater." This series epitomizes that phrase while being quite humorous. The movie leaves out details on purpose until the end and then it seems so obvious and so doable when in reality it is not. The second film got all artsy and such a key point was left out so early, it was infuriating. The third film was better and included the famous line: "Willie Bank: This town might have changed, but not me. I know people highly invested in my survival, and they are people who really know how to hurt in ways you can't even imagine. Danny Ocean: Well, I know all the guys that you'd hire to come after me, and they like me better than you." These films get better with each viewing. Why is that? Well, now that you know the entire story, you can search for all of the connecting pieces that were purposefully left out. In this way, watching things happen in chronological order is fun vs. the order that they actually tell you. This series is also about the legitimization of Matt Damon. He moves from bumbling novice to running the show in the three films. His bumbling youngster routine has hopefully been left behind for good.

2. Ratatouille This is a very close 2nd for me. Pixar created a lot of quality in the decade. Their films as ranked by me are Up, Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc., The Incredibles, Wall-E, and Cars. But the creme de la creme for me is this film. The writing is superb, the delivery is well timed and not forced. The animation is more than good enough. This is my comfort film. I can go to bed with a smile on my face after watching it. I love Skinner's line: "Let us toast your non-idiocy." Peter O'Toole's delivery of the best line is magnificent: "But the bitter truth we critics must face, is that in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so."

1. The Bourne Identity I debated about putting this here, but in the end I had to. I am fairly certain I have seen this movie more than any other during the past decade. I know that I saw it 4 times in theaters. This film came out right after I studied in Europe. I was at both the Zurich and North Paris train stations right before I saw the film. I knew the climate over there right after 9/11. This movie resonated. I still enjoy the tale and find myself enjoying the sequels more and more. Marie Kreutz's cynical line: "Nobody does the right thing." is probably a view held by more people than will admit it. I love how this was a throwback film. I say that because after The Matrix came out in 99, everyone went to the super-stylish computerized fights. Next came Mission Impossible 2, The latest Bond films, X-Men, and Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon. Now compare those to the action sequences in this film. They suddenly felt both raw and plausible. It reminded me somewhat of the film Bullitt. The sequels were good, but it took time for me to warm up to them. The Supremacy seems better with every passing year. The Ultimatum seemed a little over the top, but then again it was more about closure. The uniqueness and timing of the Identity hold up. By far my film of the 2000s.

How To Build a Flower Bed

Three months ago I started a seemingly innocuous project. "How hard can it be to make a flowerbed?", I said. Well I learned along the way and so I am now going to share what I learned and the steps to make your project easier.

The major milestones are:

1. Design the Area
2. Excavate the Area
3. Construct a Border
4. Refill with Good Soil
5. Plant the Flowers
6. Cover with Mulch

Required Tools

1. Work Shoes - At several points it stormed and flooded my half-dug bed. After working for just 15 minutes I would have 2 inches of mud on the bottom. Be prepared to throw away your shoes or be stuck with permanent junk shoes.
2. Work Gloves - This pair is actually the 2nd that I used. The first pair is in the trash. I wore through all 10 fingers on the first set.
3. Large Spade - This is the best way to get soil up. I tried a shovel and had no luck. This worked especially well with the black clay that we have.
4. Whatever This Is - Yup, I have no idea what to call it, but it is the best tool for clearing out defined areas. I used it dig out the outline for the bed before I started.
5. Spreader - I used this to spread out the new soil evenly throughout the bed.
6. Small Spade - Most people have this already. You dig holes for the bulbs and flowers with it.
7. Heavy Duty Cart - Now I did not have this wonderful contraption for most of the project. For the first 40 or so bags, I just manually carried them to their locations. This will save your back when hauling a lot of soil.

Now you may ask why I am going to all this trouble. Well that is because I have lots of Black Texas Clay underneath my yard. It has the nickname of "Black Gumbo". It soaks up water and swells. This is one of the reasons that so many people have foundation problems in our area of North Texas. Most plants need "Well Drained Soil" which is pretty much the opposite of what I have. So I replaced it. I ended up digging up only about 1 - 1.5 feet down. Others have done more, but I frankly got tired of digging. Here is what I replaced it with:

1. Peat Moss - 10 Bags
2. Top Soil - 20 Bags
3. Manure - 10 Bags of the cheap stuff. They have premium manure... but I can't imagine what that means.
4. Compost - 10 Bags
5. Top Soil - 20 Bags
6. Mulch - 12 Bags

So let's take a look at those milestones again.

1. Design the Area - This is probably the most important step. This allows you to put in a lot of effort without having to redo things. My wife gave in to my pleadings and helped measure the back yard space beforehand. The map came out like this: I went online and printed off a grid and then with help of a ruler hand drew the dimensions. Next, we did an initial master plan, or how we want it to look in the end. Our friends, Karson and Sharon, helped in this process. This keeps each sub-project from being vastly different and looking odd in the end. Next, we prioritized the sub-projects and focused on our first bed, outside of our bedroom. We found a plan in a landscaping book tailored to our area and used it as our base: This plan came from Creative Homeowner's Texas Home Landscaping book. I would highly recommend it. We then took our master plan for the backyard and fit the plants that we wanted into it. The end result looks like this: Sp now that you have a good plan, digging in the right spot and building a border is not a game of chance.
   
   
2. Excavate the Area - This where all the oomph comes into play. At least 50% of my time on this project was spent digging. I am estimating that I dug out about 3,000 lbs of dirt. So be prepared for this phase to go slower than you thought.
   
   The first thing to do is to dig out the border a little bit. This allows you to be reckless inside that border with your spade. I used our hose and snaked it around into the shape that I wanted the bed to be. I then used the yet-to-be-named tool from above to strip the grass along the hose. I then removed the hose and dug a little trench and shaped the border a bit.
   
   The rest is just good ole-fashioned hard labor. One thing that I did not consider before starting this phase was where on earth all of this dug up dirt was going to go. Luckily, the lot next door to me is empty right now.Now lifting all of that dirt over the fence was no fun, but at least it is out of my yard.
   
   
3. Construct a Border - I used two different kinds of border. We have leftover brick from the house construction and so I turned that into a decorative border: I had enough brick to go vertical and it looks good from the grass side. You can also see that famous black clay with the brick there. The fence did not need anything fancy, so I bought the cheap pliable plastic border from Lowes:Before going to the next step of refilling the area, it is a good idea to consider drainage and watering levels. I have a downspout that was pouring right into the middle of the new bed and would erode my hard work. I got a very cheap solid black tube and extended the drain out of the flower bed:I also had four different sprinkler heads that were designed for a lawn and not a flower bed. I found replacement heads that are gentler and used a simple female-female connector to attach them to the main line:
   
4. Refill with Good Soil - Now is when all of those bags of 'the good stuff' comes into play. I put the good stuff in quotes because frankly anything was better than my black clay. So when I see a $20 miracle bag and a $1.85 pretty good bag, I choose the cheaper. With the number of bags that I bought, this added up to a lot of savings. I layered Peat Moss, Top Soil, Manure, Compost, and Top Soil. I had a friend recommend a combination similar to this and so far I like it. I used my spreader to evenly mix the dirt around the entire bed. Make sure at this point re-check your drainage. Make sure that it slopes away from the house for instance.In the end, my nasty soil was transformed into this:
   
5. Plant the Flowers - This is the part that you actually planned for. This is the easiest stage. We planted a bunch of bulbs and using our nifty plan, I knew exactly where to go. This stage is fairly anti-climactic.
   
   
6. Cover with Mulch - Protect your plant from moisture, bugs, and weeds with a good mulch. This last step also adds a colorful layer to the top

Hopefully this guide can help you. Feel free to post and questions or suggestions. I will be following up in the Spring and beyond with how the plants grow in and look.

Quit Fooling Yourself

I am tired of being saturated with overly hyped meaningless statistics. At least, I am 63.78% sure that I am. The film industry has been getting away it for years and this chicanery cannot go on. The is one of the few industries that publicly denies that inflation exists. The only inflation that they are aware of involves either bicycle tires or their own track record of success.

The only statistic that is publicly acknowledged is Gross Revenue, or how much money they took in. Now it is one thing to report a statistic such as this, but it is another thing to flaunt it. This film had the largest opening for a non-action film debuting on a second Thursday in July since 1974! I am sorry, but that is really disingenuous.

The business world does not fawn over Gross Revenue numbers like this. They use calculations like Net Profit and Return on Investment (Money you make / Money you spent). And guess what, companies don't break all time records every three weeks!

Another example is baseball. Aside from the sport's recent spotty numbers, they have not inflated their statistics. For instance, what if baseball did what the film industry does and multiply home runs by average price of admission? This year (2009) the average ticket price to a Yankees game is $72.97. The year before (2008) the average price was only $41.40. So Alex Rodriguez's 35 home runs last year would equal 1449. This year's 19 home runs equals 1386. So by the movie theater logic, he is 1 home run away from besting last year's rousing success. I don't think so. Let's go back to $5 dollar seats in 1961 and look at Roger Maris's amazing 61 home runs. Wait no, that only equals 305. ARod is almost 5 times better than Maris this year according to the industry.

So, what is the solution?
A simple acknowledgment of total ticket sales . Now there is once again a problem with this because the population has grown, but not near as much as prices have. Or maybe we can use a percentage of the total census that saw the movie. So in 2009, 17.5% of the population saw that movie. So for example, so far this year, roughly 47 million Americans have seen Transformers 2. Impressive. Current figures put the number of people in the country at 307 million. So Transformers 2 sold tickets to 15.33% of Americans. Now there is a statistic I can buy.

Let's put this in perspective a little. In 1993, Jurassic Park came out. So far, Transformers 2 has sold $30 million more than the Crichton classic. But wait, ticket prices were different back then. Jurassic Park sold more than 86.2 million tickets in America. In 1993, the estimated population was around 258 million people. Jurassic Park sold tickets to 33.41% of Americans.

So while Transformers 2 has grossed more than Jurassic Park did, Jurassic Park attracted twice as much of the population to the theater.

So if we unwind, all of the inflation gobbledygook, we are left with the following list of movies that were 'huge' in my conscious lifetime. And whether you liked the movies or not, you can remember that these movies were huge events out there.

1. Titanic-1997
2. Jurassic Park-1993
3. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace-1999
4. Forrest Gump-1994
5. The Lion King-1994
6. The Dark Knight-2008

Come on Hollywood, let's be realistic.

A Real Yard

Our landscaping has been installed and looks great. We no longer have a mud pit surrounding our house garnished with a port-o-potty. Life is good.

The Almost Completed Look


The Lone Tree in the Backyard (Red Oak)


The rest of the Backyard


A plant up front (Juniper ?)


Crape Myrtle (we have 2)


Japanese Sky Pencil Holly


Kitchen Sink Fixture


Master Bath Granite and Sink Fixture


We are busy packing right now.
As you can see, we are just about ready to move!

On the Fence

We now have the backyard officially defined and I like it. The fence has not been stained yet, but you can get a better feel for the yard now.



My panoramic attempt


Oh, and they built our mailbox


Tile was started. Here you can see the pattern around the fireplace


The kitchen and dining room were tiled, but it is covered right now. You can see the light fixture that will be above our table.