Completed Foundation

The foundation is complete. In fact, as I type they are working on the frame. Things are really moving now.

Opening Day 2009

Pregame Festivities

Balloons Released Around Noon


Rosters and Alumni


The Biggest Flag Ever


President Bush (43), Nolan Ryan, and owner Tom Hicks on the mound


View During the Game



My Dad and I During the 7th Inning Stretch



Thoughts from the Game

• If traffic was that bad for a Rangers game, I do not want to be out there within a week of a Cowboys game
• Ian Kinsler is hitting the ball very well. Everything was solid contact
• Michael Young is a very good defensive 3rd baseman
• Josh Hamilton has not found his groove yet, but his Willie Mays catch in center was great
• Nelson Cruz looked off on every play in right field, not a good sign
• Hank's Homies should be excited, he seems motivated this year
• Marlon Byrd continues to be too productive to ignore
• Chris Davis looked silly at the plate
• Salty showed why his bat earned the starting job
• Andrus was nimble and efficient, exactly what we want
• Millwood was fooling hitter all day, lots of sky high pop ups
• Grady Sizemore is fast... beat out a for sure double play by making it to 2nd
• Nothing like a packed house to fire up the troops
• Note to the home crowd, our pitchers throw worse when you get rowdy
• Opening Day is much better than Monday at the Office

2009 Baseball Predictions

So once again, I offer the greatest compilation of sports prognostication around. I crunched the numbers and added in my own special expertise. Without further adieu, the greatness:

AL East

1. 95 - 67 Boston Red Sox


2. 89 - 73 New York Yankees


3. 88 - 74 Tampa Bay Rays


4. 78 - 84 Toronto Blue Jays


5. 68 - 94 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. 85 - 77 Cleveland Indians


2. 84 - 80 Minnesota Twins


3. 83 - 78 Detroit Tigers


4. 81 - 71 Chicago White Sox


5. 74 - 88 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 88 - 74 Los Angeles Angels


2. 83 - 79 Texas Rangers


3. 80 - 82 Oakland Athletics


4. 69 - 93 Seattle Mariners

NL East

1. 90 - 72 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 87 - 75 New York Mets


3. 82 - 80 Florida Marlins


4. 75 - 87 Atlanta Braves


5. 72 - 90 Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. 91 - 71 Chicago Cubs


2. 89 - 73 St. Louis Cardinals


3. 86 - 76 Milwaukee Brewers


4. 82 - 80 Houston Astros


5. 74 - 88 Cincinnati Reds


6. 70 - 92 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 89 - 73 Los Angeles Dodgers


2. 83 - 79 Arizona Diamondbacks


3. 81 - 81 San Francisco Giants


4. 75 - 87 Colorado Rockies


5. 70 - 92 San Diego Padres

So according to that account the Playoffs look like:

American League: Boston, Cleveland, Los Angeles and New York

National League: Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, and St. Louis

World Series: Boston over Chicago

Taking Root

Today I had the good fortune of checking out our land just as they were pouring our foundation. I got to meet a guy named Mike who was using a remote control to pump the mixture into the ground. A team of guys walked around in the stuff and tried to smooth it out as quickly as possible. I only had my camera phone available, so the photo is a little blurry.

2009 Baseball Predictions Primer

In the past (2008 and 2007) I have made predictions about the outcome of the baseball season. I based these on the previous year's record and then added in my own personal adjustment. It is a fairly simple formula.

Previous Years Wins +/- Off-season Moves.

This year I am taking a different approach. I have run some regression statistics and will be using those. I figured that I would explain the process before I actually posted the predictions. I have run a regression analysis on the premise that Win Total is a function of OPS and WHIP. To make it simpler, Winning is a combination of Hitting and Pitching. I chose OPS and WHIP as indicators of each respectively. Running a regression analysis on the past 5 seasons, I came up with this formula:

Win Total = 55.19 + (192.8 * OPS) - (86.2 * WHIP)

Now, you may ask, "How accurate is that formula?" A good question. According to the regression model, the adjusted R squared is .7835. In other words, The above formula accounts for 78.35% of the reason wins are the total that they are. For baseball, this is a fairly strong relationship. There is obviously no way to account for random occurrences fully, so a good 21.65% is still left to chance and situational factors.

So with that formula in mind. I calculated how many wins each team would have won if that formula were perfect. I then took the difference between reality and prediction and multiplied it by 78.35%. So with that, I have come up with the Adjusted Win Total for each team last year.

I will use this as my base prior to adjustment this year rather than actual results. Why do I want to do this? I want to know how good teams were, not how lucky they were. Therefore my formula this year is:

Previous Years Adjusted Wins +/- Opinion of Off-season Moves.

So what exactly are the adjusted win totals that I will be working with?

AL East

1. 96 - 66 Boston Red Sox


2. 92 - 70 Tampa Bay Rays


3. 89 - 73 Toronto Blue Jays


4. 87 - 75 New York Yankees


5. 68 - 94 Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. 91 - 71 Chicago White Sox


2. 84 - 78 Cleveland Indians


3. 84 - 78 Minnesota Twins


4. 76 - 86 Detroit Tigers


5. 75 - 87 Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. 88 - 74 Los Angeles Angels


2. 77 - 85 Texas Rangers


3. 72 - 88 Oakland Athletics


4. 61 - 101 Seattle Mariners

NL East

1. 88 - 74 Philadelphia Phillies


2. 85 - 77 New York Mets


3. 82 - 80 Florida Marlins


4. 77 - 85 Atlanta Braves


5. 63 - 99 Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. 98 - 64 Chicago Cubs


2. 87 - 75 Milwaukee Brewers


3. 87 - 75 St. Louis Cardinals


4. 81 - 81 Houston Astros


5. 71 - 91 Cincinnati Reds


6. 61 - 101 Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. 86 - 76 Arizona Diamondbacks


2. 85 - 77 Los Angeles Dodgers


3. 74 - 88 Colorado Rockies


4. 70 - 92 San Diego Padres


5. 68 - 94 San Francisco Giants

Which team was adjusted the most?
Los Angeles Angels (-12 wins)

Feel free to post comments or suggestions. Is there a stat that you think would be better to use than either OPS or WHIP?